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Here are some key findings of the Rasmussen Poll which shows Republican Bob McDonnell leading Democrat Creigh Deeds by 51-42 percent (see RasussenReports.com for full summary). See how, if at all, it reflects how the Mainstream Media has portrayed the campaign thus far:

» Fifty-one percent of voters now say the thesis is at least somewhat important in affecting for whom they will vote, a negligible change from the last poll.  

» Deeds’ tax increase position is more poison to him than the thesis is to McDonnell. By 51-36 percent Virginia voters trust the GOP candidate more on the tax issue, which the GOP is using to hang around Deeds in conjunction with other unpopular Democrat state and national policies.

» By 45-32 percent, voters now trust McDonnell more than Deeds on Virginia’s most pressing economic issue, transportation. Previously, voters were split on the two candidates. 

» Fifty-three percent of Virginians view McDonnell favorably; 46 percent view Deeds. That’s one point down for McDonnell over the last poll, four down for Deeds. (Going negative brings down the instigator more than the target, sometimes, and that appears to be the case here.) 

» Among those with strong opinions, twenty-nine percent have a very favorable opinion of McDonnell; thirteen percent very unfavorable. For Deeds, it’s 20 percent very favorable and 23 percent very unfavorable.

We’re awash in polls right now and the attending controversy they inevitably entail. But a new poll released a few hours ago may shed light on which polls are more accurate — or not (see Politico.com).

Rasmussen Reports today released a poll that shows Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell leading his Democrat opponent, Senator Creigh Deeds, 51-42 (see RasmussenReports.com). Rasmussen’s previous poll had the difference at only two percentage points, contributing to the perception of a tightening race. Subsequent polls from the liberal Washington Post (a four-point difference), which has endorsed Deeds, and Public Policy Polling, a Democrat leaning firm, (a five-point difference) confirmed that perception.

Yesterday, however, a SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll had the GOP ticket up by double digits. But it was largely ignored by the Mainstream Media because its results are out of line with the others. Now, the very reputable Rasmussen poll seems as close to the SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll as it does the PPP poll (which one Richmond radio station reported on for a full 24 hours). Furthermore, even the PPP poll has Republican Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and attorney general candidate Senator Ken Cuccinelli up by eight and nine points, respectively, further validating the point of view that the GOP ticket has a significant lead.

Who’s right — those who say it’s close or those who think the GOP is on its way? We won’t know until election day. But Rasmussen does have a track record. According to a testimonial on its Web site, it ”produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.” None other than Virginia politico guru Dr. Larry Sabato said it.

Annotations & Elucidations 

Virginia Borrows Now; IOUs Next?

Who said Virginia isn’t for borrowers? We’ve always prided ourselves on being different than the federales. In Virginia, we balance our budgets. In Virginia, we don’t use gimmicks. Of course, states can’t print money, but they sure can borrow it. In Virginia’s case, it’s more than $1.2  billion worth, or the size of a potential Creigh Deeds tax increase. Whatever happened to the “Best Managed State”? This is what Senator Deeds wants to “continue”? First, it was California-style state employee furloughs. Now it’s federal government-style borrowing. What’s next? Left coast-style IOUs?  

If that wasn’t enough, the Dems in Washington now are considering shielding banks from state laws. So much for federalism and that constitution thing. Finally, be sure to check out Michelle Malkin’s exclusive on the President Obama’s friends and their Olympic connections. Nothing like having a friend in high places lobby your case for the Olympics.

News:

Va. To borrow up to $1.27 billion for unemployment payments (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Bolling Vows Fiscal Reform (Harrisonburg Daily News-record)

Polls find competing results for campaigns (Northern Virginia Daily)

A Tug of War For Women’s Votes in Race For Governor (Washington Post)

Holton backs Deeds; Republicans talk mental health (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Deeds happy with Holton endorsement (Roanoke Times)

Paths diverge over budget, roads in 17th District debate (Roanoke Times)

November election voter registration deadline nears (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

5th hopeful from GOP runs for 5th (Charlottesville Daily Progress)

National News:

More thorny challenges ahead for health overhaul (AP/GOPUSA.com)

Dems debate sheilding banks from state laws (AP/GOPUSA.com)

Analysis:

Virginia’s Regional Divide on the Issues (Jennifer Agiesta/Washington Post Voices Blog)

In Virginia Culture Wars Look Very Much Alive (Stuart Rothenberg/Rothenberg Political Report Blog)

Commentary:

All The President’s Olympic Cronies (Michelle Malkin/GOPUSA.com)

Health Care and the Constitution . . . Remember that Document? (Bobby Eberle/GOPUSA.com)

Coming: The Economic “W” (Dick Morris and Eileen McGann/GOPUSA.com)

Is Disagreement With Obam Racism? (Walter E. Williams/GOPUSA.com)

Pittsburgh Protest Promoters (Brent Bozell/GOPUSA.com)

It never ceases to amaze me that the political left, with its politically intolerant “correctness” and “diversity” — mechanisms meant to pry America from its Anglo-Saxon political and cultural foundations and traditions — looks to the quickly crumbling British culture for “improving” our country (such as nationalized health care). Such has the former empire degenerated under socialism that two working moms — neighbors, friends and work colleagues (both are police detectives) — can no longer look after each other’s children!

The two women job share and would drop off their toddler to the other’s home on the way to work, saving precious money. However, just like a George Orwell character, a neighbor snitched on the two women. The “authorities” investigated and ordered the women to cease at once since neither was a “licensed” day care practitioner. Now, the women must pay for expensive private day care.

Jackie Kemp of The Guardian has the details and further comment. But it doesn’t take much to understand sorry is the day when babysitting is no longer allowed among friends. Yet, with government control blowing west across the Atlantic, one wonders how long it will be before America surrenders to British-style statism.

Two polls on Virginia’s statewide campaigns were released within the last 48 hours: one, by the Democrat leaning polling firm, Public Policy Polling, and one by SurveyUSA for Roanoke television station WDBJ-TV. It is interesting to note that the PPP poll has received exponential media coverage, lasting well into the second day after it was released. The SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll was released last night but is hardly causing a blip on the Mainstream Media’s radar screen.

The most likely explanation is that the SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll seems out of whack when compared to other polls. While many have the governor’s race in a four to seven point range, in favor of Republican Bob McDonnell, the SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll shows him up by double digits, as it does his running mates Lt. Governor Bill Bolling, running for re-election, and Senator Ken Cuccinelli (R-37, Fairfax), running for attorney general. Still, that’s never stopped the notoriously out of proportion Washington Post polls from getting top billing across the state. 

In what has gone practically unmentioned in the frenzy of the tightening of PPP’s poll, however, is that it also shows Lt. Governor Bolling and Senator Cuccinelli leading by eight and nine points, respectively. So, we have a Mainstream Media cherry picking news even from the one poll on which it has focused. Not only that, but by its own admission, the PPP poll’s “internals” do not show bad news for McDonnell. Among the fndings (see PPP Blog here):

52% of voters say they’re very familiar with the thesis and McDonnell actually has a 55-41 {lead} with that group, reflecting the fact that Republicans are more engaged this year and following the campaign more closely. Deeds is up 56-41 with the 29% of voters who claim moderate knowledge of the thesis.

(Does this mean conservative voters are more informed, or just that they don’t watch MSNBC?)

In another blog post,PPP’s Tom Jensen writes that Democrat candidate Creigh Deeds leads among voters who were undecided a month ago by 35-32 percent, and lists this as an advantage for him. But it’s within the margin of error and not enough to close the gap.

Back to SurveyUSA. Here’s a link to its methodology and complete statistical breakdown. It survey 1,000 Virginians, 886 of them registered to vote, and filtered its responses to the 631 of them determined to be likely voters this November.