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The Virginia Senate vote to protect property rights from the government’s overwhelming power of eminent domain again was put off today. One reason given was a senator’s absence due to attendance at a funeral, but no one doubts negotiations continue, especially within the Republican caucus, while not losing key Democrats. It’s a tight balancing act.

However, this delay affords grassroots activists another chance to keep the pressure on. If you have not, please contact your senator and urge him or her to vote for HJ 693, the protection of property rights from eminent domain (patroned by Delegate Johnny Joannou, D-79, Portsmouth). The best way to deny government’s appetite for continued growth and limit its intrusiveness is to protect private property and ensure just compensation for the true and few public uses that require a property taking. The only way to do that is to secure our liberties in the state constitution.

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A bit of history was made — or at least attempted — Tuesday in the Senate. Senator Mark Obenshain (R-26, Harrisonburg), expressing the frustration of an arbitrary exercise of Senate rules by majority Democrats, made a discharge motion — a parliamentary procedure to bring to the floor of a legislative body a bill that has been defeated or bottled up in committee.

A discharge motion hasn’t been attempted in the Senate in nearly two decades (see Washington Post Virginia Politics Blog). It’s considered desperate and an affront, especially in the “collegial” Senate, because it doesn’t respect Senate procedure and the “committee process” (i.e., the opinion of your colleagues who have heard the patron, witness testimony and debate, and studied the legislation) — it’s done with, so let it be — and slows down floor action. It’s rare because those who attempt it often are ostracized by most, if not all, of their colleagues. Its required two-thirds majority vote also is difficult to achieve, so the risk-to-cost ratio isn’t appealing.

However, it’s on the books for a reason or it wouldn’t be a rule — precisely when the committee process has degenerated into a, “the rules are what we say they are,” selectively applied, moving target. Senate rules and tradition are that sub-committees take recommendation votes only, and that full committees hear every bill for a final vote. Last year, the Senate, in an unprecedented move, changed its rules after crossover to allow sub-committees (with as little as two votes) to kill House bills so as to save members from going on record on tough votes in full committee. Rule changes in midstream are almost unheard of, but even at that, Senate bills always have been given the courtesy of full committee hearings. Where’s the “collegiality” in revoking that process? (While House rules allow for the killing of bills in sub-committee, it is in its rules, and they are applied equally, to all bills, throughout session.)

I got an inkling of the Senate mischief at this session’s first meeting of the Privileges and Elections Committee. The chair, Senator Janet Howell (D-32, Reston), announced that no bill with a negative sub-committee vote would be brought to the full committee. Senator Obenshain asked if he heard correctly and, when told “yes,” protested to no avail. But the discussion boiled over into a rules battle at a subsequent meeting (see Washington Post) when he tried to bring up bills and resolutions with negative sub-committee votes in full committee (see video below). Which brings us to Tuesday on the floor:

Senator Obenshain attempted to dislodge SJ 307, a proposed constitutional amendment to protect private property from government takings through eminent domain. It was defeated 4-3 in a Privileges and Elections sub-committee on an unrecorded party line vote (notice that omission here). Amazingly, only four unrecorded votes can thwart the will of the people in the Virginia Senate! A small forum in a cramped conference room on the third floor of the GAB is the venue for the debate and discussion on whether the commonwealth will protect one of its citizens’ most cherished rights — the protection of private property from the oppressive government power of eminent domain.

But in a surprise move, after consulting with his caucus earlier that morning, Senator Obenshain got his full Senate vote on property rights during a marathon session to finish bills before crossover. He motioned “to suspend the rules” and bring SJ 307  directly to the floor. He was seconded by Senator Tommy Norment (R-3, Williamsburg). The motion properly before the body failed to get a majority, much less two-thirds, on a strict party line vote, 22-18. If SJ 307 made it to the floor through the committee process, it most likely would pass. Unfortunately, some Democrats adhered to process over propriety. The good news is that the Senate finally, after several years, has a recorded vote on property rights and that the GOP caucus united on this rare motion.

There should be a rule about that: The Senate majority preaches collegiality . . . except when hearing and voting on its members’ legislation. 

Governor Bob McDonnell today set March 8 as the date for the special election to fill the 91st district House of Delegates seat suddenly vacated last week when Delegate Tom Gear (R-Hampton) resigned for health reasons. Delegate Gear’s multiple sclerosis is worsening and his wife and sister both have cancer (see Rosalind Helderman at the Washington Post’s Virginia Politics blog). That date ensures that 91st district voters will not be represented in the House of Delegates this 46-day session. The earliest the election could have been set, by law, was 45 days after Delegate Gear’s resignation. 

We will miss Delegate Gear. Quick witted and always genial, his great sense of humor frequently was on display, especially in the small chat world of General Assembly Building elevators and waiting areas, and often timely to relieve certain stress over upcoming committee votes those elevators were taking us to. An unwavering conservative, he is a public servant committed to principle. We wish him and his loved ones well and the restoration of their health.

Of course,  just because he resigned doesn’t mean he’s gone inactive. There are three Republicans running to succeed him in a largely GOP district (no word on whether the Democrats will field a candidate) and he’s already thrown his endorsement to Teresa Vanasse Schmidt, a day-care assistant director from Hampton, calling her “a rock-solid conservative. She’s pro-life. She’s big on the Second Amendment. And she doesn’t believe in raising taxes” (see the Post). 

Also running are Hampton City Councilman Chris Stuart, who owns a security company, and attorney Chad Green, the second vice-chairman of the York County Republican Committee. Stuart today released a statement announcing that he is the first of the three to sign the Americans for Tax Reform “Taxpayer Protection Pledge” which states that a candidate will never vote for a tax increase.

I happened across a fascinating statement by our self-described “radical centrist” U.S. Senator Mark Warner in a well-done weekend post-election analysis piece in the Roanoke Times. Here is the paragraph:

But Democrats struggled with their message this fall, especially when it came to the economy. [Senator Mark] Warner said that when he would tell audiences about middle class tax cuts and homebuyer tax credits pushed by Democrats, “you still get people looking at you askew.” The party could not persuade voters that it had the country on the right track. (emphasis added)

Beside the fact that the Senator is parroting the Democrat talking points about “not getting our message out” (does anyone really buy that line anymore?), or the whole bizarre concept that Democrats actually think the country is on the “right track,” I find Senator Warner’s statement about tax cuts especially comical. I have a guess as to why no one would listen to our senior Senator on the subject — he lied about taxes the first time and Virginians remember.

Remember, then candidate for governor Mark Warner in 2001 swore up and down on the campaign trail that he had no intention of raising taxes — and then forced the largest tax hike in Virginia history through the legislature. Fast forward to 2010 and Warner is out there swearing up and down that Democrats really do want to cut taxes. And the Senator is perplexed as to why people looked at him “askew.”

What’s the line about people believing their own lies … ?

This ad by Citizens Against Government Waste is getting rave reviews by people of all political stripes. It scored in the 90s among Republicans and around 75 among Democrats in a Dr. Frank Luntz focus group, the highest ever bipartisan approval he’s ever seen for a political ad. It goes to show how massive, incomprehensible debt (in the multi trillions of dollars)scares everyone but the most left wing of the electorate — and rightly so.

If all good humor must contain at least a grain of truth, then all credible looks into the future must have a seed of realism, which is why this ad soars — unlike the futuristic dud produced recently by the left wing pressure group MoveOn.org (starring a big name Hollywood actress, no less). It also may be a metaphor for this election.

It’s no longer Halloween, but consider this our horror story for the ocassion. Released on October 20, already nearly 900,000 people have viewed it. Will it scare people across the country to the polls?

 Not so nutty Chinese professor. What would’ve seemed impossible a a few years ago will be on our door step shortly if we don’t elect the leaders who will take corrective action now. 

All signs are pointing to a large Republican victory on November 2. But how large? Will Virginia play a role? It’s prediction time. Tell us how many of Virginia’s six seats held by Democrats will flip to the GOP column in this mid-term election. Then, please post your comments on the campaigns and which specific candidates you think will win. Will there be a surprising upset? Will the close elections break one way or the other? Will Morgan Griffith, Keith Fimian, Robert Hurt and Scott Rigell sweep? Will Patrick Murray or Chuck Smithpull shockers? Who will win the biggest and who will squeak by? Any recounts? Give us percentages and predictions of all types. We ask. You tell us.

Earlier this morning, on MSNBC, anchor Chris Jansing asked liberal media mogul (owner of the New York Daily News and U.S. News & World Report), real estate billionaire, journalist and author Mort Zuckerman how he would spend the few million dollars remaining at the Democrats’ disposal to help preserve its congressional majorities if he was the DNC chairman (who happens to be former governor Tim Kaine).

Snapped Zuckerman:

If I was the DNC chairman, I’d spend that money on finding a second career. 

Zuckerman to Kaine: Take the money, run and find a new line of work.

FYI, for the good folks in the 5th Congressional District: U.S Representative Tom Perreillo has released his summer town hall schedule. As with last summer, it’s extensive. So, if you are concerned about the issues of the day, and his voting record, you have every opportunity to hear him for yourself, and perhaps ask him questions.

Representative Perriello’s re-election campaign against Republican Virginia Senator Robert Hurt will be one of the most watched House races in the country this fall (it already has the attention of Sheryl Crow). An early poll, and many pundits, believe the congressman will have a hard go to earn another two years — he won the closest House race in the country in 2008 (700-plus votes) when the tides and stars both were aligned with the Democrats, and was the beneficiary of the Obama machine’s large student and new voter registration and turnout. This year, he can’t count on a repeat of that and, in a naturally conservative district (his Club For Growth voting record is decidedly liberal), there’s a renewed energy  among grassroots conservative activists.  

Thursday, August 5

7:30–9:30 a.m., Charlotte County Board of Supervisors Meeting Room, 250 LeGrande Avenue, Suite A, Charlotte Court House

Saturday, August 7

11:30 a.m.–1:30 p.m., Carysbrook Performing Arts Center, 8880 James Madison Highway (Hwy 15), Fork Union

Monday, August 9

7:30–9:30 a.m., The Nelson Center, 8445 Thomas Nelson Highway, Lovingston

Tuesday, August 10

7:30–9:30 a.m., Scottsville Elementary School, 7868 Scottsville Road, Scottsville

Thursday, August 12

11:30 a.m.–1:30 p.m., Buckingham County Middle School, 1184 High School Road, Buckingham

Saturday, August 14

4:00–6:00 p.m., Swartz Gymnasium, Ferrum College, 445 Ferrum Mountain Road, Ferrum

Monday, August 16

7:30–9:30 a.m., Chatham Community Center, 115 South Main Street, Chatham

Tuesday, August 17

6:00–8:00 p.m., O.T. Bonner Middle School, 300 Apollo Avenue, Danville

Wednesday, August 18

6:00–8:00 p.m., Martinsville High School, 351 Commonwealth Boulevard East, Martinsville

Thursday, August 19

11:30 a.m. – 1:30 p.m., Halifax High School, 1030 Mary Bethune Street, South Boston

Friday, August 20

7:30– 9:30 a.m., Ruckersville Fire Station, 50 Sassafras Lane, Ruckersville

Monday, August 30

11:30 a.m.–1:30 p.m., Saint Paul’s College, Chicago Building, Kirby Auditorium, 115 College Drive, Lawrenceville

Tuesday, August 31

6:00–8:00 p.m., Blackwell Hall, Longwood University, 201 High Street, Farmville

Wednesday, September 1

11:30 a.m. – 1:30 p.m., Mecklenburg County School Board Meeting Room, 175 Mayfield Drive, Boydton

Thursday, September 2

7:30- 9:30 a.m., Kenbridge Community Center, 511 East 5th Avenue, Kenbridge

Friday, September 3

11:30 a.m.–1:30 p.m., Cumberland Community Center, 13 Community Center Drive, Cumberland

Tuesday, September 7

6:00-8:00 p.m., MLK Performing Arts Center, 1400 Melbourne Road, Charlottesville

Friday, September 10

11:30 a.m. – 1:30 p.m., Campbell County Board of Supervisors Meeting Room, Haberer Building, Board Level, 47 Courthouse Lane, Rustburg

Monday, September 13

11:30 a.m.–1:30 p.m., Bedford County Board of Supervisors Meeting Room, County Administration Building, 122 East Main Street, Bedford

Below is the first part of a two part interview with nationally known political scientist Dr. Bob Holsworth, a regular commentator on Virginia and national politics. His articles and commentary can be read in publications and on the Internet, and heard on television and radio. He is a frequent speaker to numerous organizations, heads a consultancy, and is the editor of the widely read blog, Virginia Tomorrow. Today, we talk about the current session of the General Assembly and touch on national politics.

FamilyFoundationBlog.com: Dr. Holsworth, it’s a great honor to have you answer some questions on our blog about the General Assembly and Virginia politics in general. So, thank you very much for participating in this interview. We greatly appreciate your valuable time and look forward to your insights and are big fans of your blog, Virginia Tomorrow. Are you ready for some questions?

Dr. Bob Holsworth: Thanks very much for the opportunity to be on your site.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Has anything surprised you about this session of the General Assembly? Has the Republican sweep and increased House of Delegates majority created a visible difference or is it too early to tell (i.e., waiting for the budget)?

Dr. Holsworth: Certainly, the Republican sweep in the House has made it even easier for the GOP to control the legislative outcomes in that chamber. But the Democratic control of the Senate can still pose substantial hurdles for the Governor and the House GOP. I was surprised that five Democrats in the Senate supported the Health Care Freedom legislation, symbolically repudiating former Governor Kaine and President Obama. All of these Democrats are in districts where the GOP could field competitive challengers and this tells you just how concerned Democrats have become about the impact of the national mood here in Virginia. At the same time, Senate Dems have summarily dismissed part of the McDonnell agenda such as dedicating royalties for off-shore drilling to transportation and changing the budget cycle. What will happen with the overall budget is still up in the air as Senate Dems actually disagree if they should present a budget that includes some of the tax increases in (former) Governor Kaine’s recommended document or acknowledge the political reality that there will be no major tax increases and present a budget accordingly, even if it inconsistent with what they would really want to propose.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Governor Bob McDonnell ran on a jobs-creation platform and de-emphasized social issues. But social issues do play a role in the budget. Do you think he will go so far as to de-fund Planned Parenthood?

Dr. Holsworth: I think that you have phrased the question well. Some folks have said that McDonnell ran as a “moderate.” My sense is that he ran as an economic conservative and gave less priority in the campaign to his social conservatism. I fully expect that McDonnell will sign almost all bills with a “social conservative” orientation that emerge from the legislative process. What’s not entirely clear is how far his own proposals will move in this direction. He obviously made a symbolic change when he removed sexual orientation from the non-discrimination executive order with respect to state government workers. The question of whether he’ll propose a budget amendment to de-fund panned parenthood will be seen by many of his supporters as a test of whether he will implement the values of social conservatism in the budget. If he does, there will be a substantial fight in the Senate and the media will surely portray it as a switch from the “moderation” of the campaign. If he doesn’t, he’ll disappoint a segment of his core supporters.

FamilyFoundationBlog: If Governor McDonnell proposes a host of “fees” instead of taxes to close the budget gap, how will that affect his support on the right? creation

Dr. Holsworth: If McDonnell is perceived as simply playing semantics with taxes, it will harm him not only with the right, but with many independents as well. He was very clear during the election about his belief that revenue increases should primarily come from economic growth and I would be very surprised if he has a post-election conversion to a different point of view, especially in this political environment.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Governor McDonnell is getting a lot of positive attention right now — giving the GOP response to the State of the Union, doing several national interviews, even one for Newt Gingrich’s newsletter. Does he runs the risk of raising his own expectations?

Dr. Holsworth: I think of the smartest moves the new Governor made was to cancel his national interviews the day after his SOTU response. Virginians have made it clear that his first priority as Governor should be the Commonwealth and, in the long run, McDonnell’s national stature will be most enhanced by having a strong approval rating in-state.

FamilyFoundationBlog: What chances do you give of real reforms this or next year in areas of budgeting and in recalculating SOQ spending?

Dr. Holsworth: The Senate has already rejected a key McDonnell proposal on changing the two year budget cycle. Recalculating SOQ spending has been an issue that many House Republicans have pointed to over the last few years as a reform necessary to rein in future budget increases. We’ve seen some willingness from both parties to look at items such as staffing ratios regarding non-instructional personnel. If there ever would be a time where the entire SOQ calculation would be readjusted, it would be in the kind of fiscal environment we have now. But polls show that schools remain extremely high on the public’s priority list. In aggregate, school groups (teachers, superintendents, school boards, and principals) are extraordinarily well organized and very politically effective. Moreover, Virginia schools overall seem to perform extremely well — just this week, we ranked third in the nation in AP testing. I believe that the effort for major permanent structural changes in school funding will have substantial hurdles to overcome.

FamilyFoundationBlog: What are your thoughts on former Governor Doug Wilder calling for Tim Kaine’s removal as Democrat National Committee chairman?

Dr. Holsworth: Former Governor Wilder noted that he had supported Tim Kaine for Vice-President, but did not feel that the DNC Chair was the best fit for his talents and skills. My guess is that there are a number of Democratic activists who are more comfortable with the sharp edges of a Howard Dean than the more cerebral approach to the position of Tim Kaine. The proof, of course, will be in the November pudding. Kaine will succeed if Democrats do far better than expected. But if November is a Democratic debacle, Kaine will be fingered for part of the blame.

Be sure to check back with us tomorrow afternoon for part two of our interview with Dr. Bob Holsworth as we look at next year’s Congressional elections in Virginia, Senator Jim Webb’s prospects in 2012, and the Tea Party movement.

Is there a new Senate ”Gang of Five”? J. Scott Leake thinks so. Mr. Leake should know. He was a top insider to the leadership of the “moderate” Republicans who held sway during the years of GOP control of that chamber. The five were: now retired President Pro Tem John Chichester, then-Majority Leader Walter Stosch, then-senator and current Virginia Beach Sheriff Ken Stolle, and Senators Tommy Norment and William Wampler. Nothing happened in the Senate unless they decided it would.

Now, in his General Assembly Grapevine for Bacon’s Rebellion, Mr. Leake, who also is the director of government and public affairs at the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy, writes that the Senate Democrat majority has a developed a “Gang of Five” of its own: President Pro Tem Charles Colgan, and Senators Roscoe Reynolds, John Miller (a freshman, no less), Phil Puckett and — be sure you’re sitting for this — Creigh Deeds. Far from controlling the entire agenda, as the GOP gang did, this one appears to be an alliance certain for budget negotiations only, keeping the rest of their caucus from dragging them into electoral oblivion — Colgan and Miller are D’s who represent very Republican areas, while Puckett and Reynolds represent rural and small town areas that easily could swing to the GOP, a fact that has each constantly looking over their shoulders. Deeds, Leake says, has a range of constituents which prompts an unpredictable populist streak.

Increasing the intrigue is the fact that many Senate Dems want to use the budget submitted by former Governor Tim Kaine as the basis for their proposal. But that budget includes reinstating the car tax. The senators above have constituents who would be hurt financially should the car tax be reinstated, an issue within the Democrat caucus. Senator Deeds, according to Leake, now is acutely aware of the repercussions of campaigning on a record of higher taxes.

All this dovetails into the rumors swirling around Capitol Square that other factions within the Senate Democrat caucus are making life dysfunctional for that group, namely Senate members of the Legislative Black Caucus who have their own budget demands. If there truly is all this discord within the majority, it may take more than a gang to sort things out. Or at least a heavily armed gang. Time will tell if this new gang has the clout, or the political arsenal, to whip their colleagues into line.