FamilyFoundationBlog.com

Based on dialogue on the House floor this afternoon, it’s a 50-50 shot the budget will be agreed upon in time by conferees and printed for a vote tomorrow. It may go to Sunday. Even into next week. Which gives us time to renew our call for no new or additional fees or taxes.

However, according to news reports this morning, there may be some backtracking on cutting the much over bloated education spending. Of course, the VEA is making wild claims about thousands of teachers losing their jobs. It must be noted, however, that spending on K-12 education in Virginia has increased 60 percent over the last 10 years while enrollment in public schools has increased only 7.2 percent. In 2004, the General Assembly infused public education with more than a billion dollars in additional funding — remember that tax increase? — with no reforms, and every two years the antiquated funding formula guarantees one billion dollars in extra taxpayer money into public education.

Interestingly, The Family Foundation participated in a poll last year with last year with renown Friedman Foundation for Educational Choice, and found that a majority of Virginians vastly underestimate the amount of money Virginia spends per pupil on public education. While most thought it was less than $6,000, in fact it is in excess of $11,000 per student!

During the last budget process, as everyone recognized that we were in a deep economic recession, the General Assembly passed a budget based on then-Governor Tim Kaine’s projection of significant increases in revenue. Such a notion was rightly dismissed as foolish by some legislators, but a budget laden with spending based on the fictitious numbers passed anyway. Now, we’re paying the price in the form of a $4 billion deficit because even though the revenue was projected, the spending was real — Virginia’s budget is based on estimated revenue, not actual receipts. So when the real money never showed up . . .

Yet, we’re being told by some, we have to pay for their mistakes. The only one who should pay a price in this situation are those who spent the money — not those who supplied it. Tell your delegates and senators not to increase taxes and “fees” in the budget, and to cut its excessive spending to the levels of real revenue.

If you know who they are, you can get their contact info here for delegates and here for senators. If you don’t know who your delegate and senator are, click here.

Late Wednesday afternoon, amidst growing tensions on college campuses, Governor Bob McDonnell issued a “Governor’s Directive,” ordering those in the executive branch not to discriminate in their hiring practices (see here). His directive specifically referenced “sexual orientation.”

Governor McDonnell issued his directive in an apparent effort to ease the hostile atmosphere on our campuses and in the General Assembly. Four years ago, then-Attorney General McDonnell challenged Governor Tim Kaine’s executive order that added sexual orientation to the anti-discrimination policy, saying he didn’t have the authority to do so. It is still unclear exactly what legal weight, if any, a directive has, but media reports indicate that it does not have the same force of law of an executive order.

Much of the anger among college students has been generated by those who are supposed to be in authority at those schools — college presidents and administrators — who have criticized the advisory letter Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli sent them last week. The letter stated that public colleges and universities with anti-discrimination policies that include sexual orientation are in conflict with state law. Instead of providing leadership, the college presidents and administrators have provoked anger and outrage with inflamed rhetoric.

A media backlash also was fed by heated and often mean-spirited rhetoric by a handful of General Assembly members, including Senator Donald McEachin (D-9, Henrico) who, in a floor speech earlier this week, referenced Governor McDonnell’s graduate school thesis, yelling on the Senate floor, “We are being governed by the thesis!” Joining in the daily diatribes were Delegate David Englin (D-45, Alexandria) and Delegate Joe Morrissey (D-74, Henrico). It was often insinuated that anyone who disagrees with adding sexual orientation to the non-discrimination policy is hateful and bigoted. But truth has been difficult to find in this debate.

In addition, some legislators made the outrageous claim that, without a non-discrimination policy that included sexual orientation, Virginia is not “business friendly” and would not be able to attract new jobs. But several publications and organizations currently recognize Virginia as the best state in America to do business without having this policy.

Nonetheless, yesterday morning, Senator Tommy Norment (R-3, Williamsburg), in a clear conflict of interest as an employee of the College of William and Mary, one of the colleges expressing outrage over the AG’s letter, amended an economic development bill introduced by the Governor with: “The Commonwealth of Virginia maintains an ecumenical atmosphere in its sexual orientation hiring policies in the private and public workforce.”

Besides being a bizarre statement, it is a frightening overreach into the private workplace, which would include religious-based ministries and churches. Fortunately, on the floor of the Senate — because of the Governor’s directive — Senator Norment removed his amendment from the bill.

The Family Foundation has and continues to maintain that there is no need for special protections for homosexuals. As the issue was thoroughly debated and voted on multiple times throughout this year’s General Assembly, no evidence of discrimination was presented.

We absolutely agree with one statement in Governor McDonnell’s directive — that state employment should be based on “qualifications, merit and performance,” regardless of one’s immutable or unimmutable characteristics.

Over the next several days, we will consult with experts to determine the legal ramifications of this directive, but we are concerned when the Governor’s action is being heralded as a step forward by the ACLU and the state’s largest homosexual lobby, Equality Virginia (Pilot on Politics).

In a statement, Kent Willis of the ACLU said, “We hope this is only the beginning, and that the Governor’s example will inspire legislators to finally pass a law prohibiting discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity in both private and public sector employment.”

Any thought that the groups and organizations behind this effort will stop at public employment is naive. It is very clear that they want to force private businesses — including churches — to abide by their morality.

At the beginning of this year’s General Assembly session, pregnancy resource centers were in the crosshairs of the abortion industry. From a press conference releasing a now debunked report about PRCs, to legislation that would have burdened them with unnecessary regulations, Planned Parenthood and NARAL Pro-Choice Virginia must have thought they were well on their way to putting their competition out of business.

What a difference a few weeks — and the truth — makes.

Yesterday, instead of finalizing anti-PRC legislation, the House (HJ 435) and Senate (SJ 265) passed identical resolutions honoring the work of pregnancy resource centers across the commonwealth. This took place despite a frantic effort by NARAL to derail the resolutions (Washington Post Virginia Politics Blog). The resolutions were introduced at the request of The Family Foundation.

Earlier this session, the anti-PRC legislation was defeated in House and Senate sub-committees, with the Senate patron, Dr. Ralph Northam (D-6, Norfolk), actually asking for his own bill (SB 188) to be defeated. This happened in a sub-committee meeting, that he chaired, where the truth about the work of PRCs was presented through personal testimonies from young women who received support from PRCs in their time of need.

The Family Foundation was honored to work with so many great PRC directors who serve women and families in crisis each and every day. (Click here to read more about the battle in this Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star op-ed.) We especially thank Senator Jill Vogel (R-27, Winchester) and Delegate Chris Stolle, MD (R-83, Virginia Beach) for introducing these commending resolutions on behalf of Virginia’s pregnancy resource centers.

Virginia’s PRCs are grateful, too. Below is a letter we received from one center after the news the two resolutions were passed:

Thank you so much for all your work on the front lines for family values in Virginia. We continue to thank God for you all. The help and guidance that you and the FF team provided to the Virginia Directors in mid January was deeply appreciated. Weren’t we all amazed by the miraculous ways in which God moved in the Health subcommittee on January 26, 2010. I truly will never forget that day!!!!

News from the Family Foundation this morning regarding the resolutions honoring the work of PRC’s across the Commonwealth, requested by the FF and passed in both House and Senate yesterday, has truly been humbling in light of all you have already done for us. Thank you so much for your partnership in standing for life in the Commonwealth of Virginia and for the tremendous work that you do both in session season and out. May God continue to bless you all.

“And we know that God causes all things to work together for good to those who love God, to those who are called according to His purpose.” Romans 8:28

Yesterday, we asked you to contact your delegates and senators and urge them to support the three vital budget amendments that ban state funding for the partisan political organization Planned Parenthood, as well as the ones that ban embryonic stem cell research (which has not produced one medical advance) and elective abortions (Virginia funded 322 such abortions in 2006-2007). Today, we urge you to take action on the other side of the ledger.

While we want to hold government spending to essential core services that fit the proper role of government — and eliminate excessive spending, especially for nefarious groups and causes — we also must make clear to our representatives that we are over taxed. In their work to close the $4 billion state budget deficit, our senators and delegates must know that they cannot bridge that gap on the backs of families, individuals and businesses who are struggling in this very tough economy.

The truth of the matter is that we have a “spending surplus” — not a deficit from a lack of revenue. In fact, if lawmakers are so concerned about the deficit, they should look at themselves before they do the taxpayers. The General Assembly has doubled spending in the Virginia budget over the last 10 years, several times the rates of inflation and population growth combined! But those facts don’t get in the way of special interest, big-government lobbyists who, unfortunately, have a lot of influence at the capitol. They will use every weapon in their arsenal to jack up taxes to pay for their pet projects and programs.

One weapon is the myth that public education is getting cut to the bone and that tax increases are necessary “for the children.” However, spending on K-12 education in Virginia has increased by 60 percent over the last 10 years while enrollment in public schools has increased only 7.2 percent; and 60 percent of the budget is dedicated to education and health care. But the Senate (SB 30) and House (HB 30) budgets have $300 million and $76 million in tax and fee increases, respectively. When does it end?

The Senate budget increases the 911 “fee” on every cel phone and landline to pay for 911 centers. Two problems: The increased revenue won’t go to 911 centers and the “fee” as the Senate would have you believe, is defined as a tax in the Code of Virginia — and that’s just the beginning of what lawmakers want to do to you.

It’s time for lawmakers to do what Virginia families and job creators are doing — cut expenses! We can’t make money appear out of nowhere and the General Assembly shouldn’t try. Instead, it should tame its unabated appetite for hard-earned tax payer income.

Please contact your delegate and senator immediately and urge them to reject increased taxes and fees on Virginia families, individuals and businesses in the new budget .

If you know who they are, you can get their contact info here for delegates and here for senators. If you don’t know who your delegate and senator are, click here.

The House remains in session as of this post, but earlier liberal Delegates Joe Morrissey (D-74, Henrico) and David Englin (D-45, Alexandria) railed against Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s recently issued opinion that states the obvious — Virginia law does not single out homosexuals as a protected class and, therefore, its colleges and universities cannot offer anti-discriminatory policies for their protection. But why is their vitriol aimed at the AG? He’s only quoting Virginia law as it reads. Delegate Adam Ebbin (D-49, Arlington), though not as vociferous as his colleagues, referenced ridicule on last night’s Daily Show, as if a flippant cable comedy show is of the heft to dictate Virginia policy.

Delegates Morrissey and Englin, however, struck a refrain that is the last resort of liberals-who-all-of-a-sudden-care-about-big-business: Virginia will lose corporate headquarters if this is allowed to stand!

Let’s see: Unemployment is at record levels (despite a $787 billion “stimulus” program by the nation’s smartest-ever-president), resulting in a lack of demand for products by consumers; we have massive, almost incomprehensible, third-world-like debt; unimaginable budget deficits projected for years; a lack of lending by banks; and, with so much liquidity in the system, the very real possibility that hyper inflation will ignite — somehow, we don’t think Fortune 500 firms are arguing over Virginia’s campus social policies. Furthermore, the delegates defeated their own arguments, citing that many of these companies have established their own policies regarding homosexuals. So why, then, would corporations be concerned about a policy concerning Virginia’s public colleges? They are not. The opinion has nothing to do with corporations.

Furthermore, if these delegates are so concerned about creating jobs and attracting corporations to Virginia, perhaps they should take real job creating action and start cutting corporate taxes, stop raising taxes on individuals and families, and cut state spending and balance our budget. But the most perplexing aspect of the entire debate is that we’ve heard nothing over the last 10 years in Virginia but that “social issues” aren’t important. Oh, really? To some, apparently, they are, and it’s very convenient for liberals, who don’t dare campaign on creating special protected classes of citizens, to criticize the attorney general simply for stating Virginia law while contriving “economic development concerns” in doing so.

No issue has galvanized Americans like the attempt by President Barack Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to take over the American health care system and put it under federal government control. Conservatives, liberals, moderates, Democrats, Republicans and independents alike have made their voices known — No nationalized health care! After a string of embarrassing election losses — including the historic conservative landslide sweep here in Virginia last November and the recent Republican win in the Massachusetts special Senate election — it looked like health care “reform” was dead.

Not so fast. President Obama and his liberal Congressional allies are resuscitating their plans with talk of forcing it through Congress in a process called “reconciliation” that bypasses the protection of a filibuster. So, what can we do about it?

In Virginia, plenty! This week’s news from Washington couldn’t have better timing because Monday afternoon the Senate Commerce and Labor Committee will hear Delegate Bob Marshall’s HB 10, the Virginia Health Care Freedom Act, which would exempt Virginians from individual federal health care mandates. Although three Senate versions have passed the General Assembly already, and are on their way to Governor Bob McDonnell to become the first law of its type in the land, Delegate Marshall’s (R-13, Manassas) bill is slightly different and would provide additional protections. The Commerce and Labor Committee barely passed the other versions with 8-7 votes. Democrat Senators Charles Colgan (D-29, Manassas) and Phil Puckett (D-38, Tazewell) bravely bucked their party leadership to vote for true health care freedom. Please thank them, and encourage them and other members of the committee to vote for HB 10 to secure Virginia from federal intrusion into our personal health care decisions!

This is an historic opportunity for Virginia to protect itself from federal government intrusion! Please contact members of the Senate Commerce and Labor Committee (here) now and ask them to pass HB 10.

Yesterday, we posted part one of a two part interview with Senator Jill Vogel (R-27, Winchester). The questions focused on SB 417, the Virginia Health Care Freedom bill she patroned, and which is on its way to Governor Bob McDonnell for his signature. The bill preserves the freedom of Virginians from federal mandates to buy health insurance. Today, we ask Senator Vogel about state spending and the budget, de-funding Planned Parenthood and eliminating the state corporate income tax.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Will the General Assembly eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood this year? It was so close two years ago, but now we have a pro-life governor. How will having a pro-life governor affect this particular budget policy getting approved?

Senator Jill Vogel: I hope so. I introduced a budget amendment on the Senate side that would de-fund Planned Parenthood. But in the Democratic controlled Senate it is more of an uphill battle. No question, having a pro-life Governor makes a difference and no doubt, it is a razor thin vote in the Senate.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Over a period of about 10 years, state government spending nearly doubled. Will the Virginia Senate take advantage of the budget gap now to not just make cuts to programs, which still leaves them in place to grow again in the future, but make permanent changes that eliminate government involvement entirely where government truly is not needed so as to put a brake on future state government growth?

Senator Jill Vogel: I think that this awful economy and terrible budget environment has a silver lining. We have the leverage to make changes in the size and structure of government that will bring long terms savings and shrink the size of government.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Every year we see the governor and General Assembly pass targeted tax credits to create jobs or “invest” in business recruitment funding to lure businesses to Virginia. Instead of spending taxpayer money and quibbling over targeted tax credits that are not broadly based and how much to fund — and what to name — the Governor’s Opportunity Fund, why not cut or eliminate corporate taxes? They are the biggest hindrance to job creation. Corporate taxes need to be looked at as a business expense. If a CEO knew he could move to Virginia where his company would pay no corporate tax, and his company could then realize a bigger profit, that would lure many more times the businesses to Virginia than any targeted incentive. Should the General Assembly and Governor McDonnell be so bold as to support Delegate Bob Purkey’s HB 119?

Senator Jill Vogel: I support the bill and you have said it better than I could. Targeted tax breaks may solve a short term, narrow objective. But let’s be practical and consider that a broader perspective, where we address the issue of corporate taxes head on, brings substantial long term benefit and would be a real game changer when businesses out of Virginia decide where they want to invest.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Senator Vogel, thanks a million for your time and your insights into this year’s session. Thank you also for your constant support for family values and limited, constitutional government. We look forward to a productive and successful session in advancing these shared principles.

Senator Jill Vogel: Thank you so much for the questions. It is a great honor to get to serve my district in the Senate. I take my responsibility seriously and I appreciate the opportunity to partner with you on so many issues that matter to my district. Take care and stay in touch.

Today, the news making the biggest waves throughout Capitol Square isn’t the budget, or liberals’ reaction to Governor Bob McDonnell’s proposed cuts. It’s not the speculation on the budget the House Appropriations Committee will produce Sunday or whether the Senate Finance Committee will even meet its budget deadline at all (apparently, it will, Sunday afternoon). It’s not conservatives’ outrage toward Speaker Bill Howell and the governor over letting HB 119 die in Appropriations. It’s not concern over any bill or policy making headlines in the Mainstream Media.

The big conversation is about the closing of Richbrau Brewery, a hometown institution that brewed a locally made beer; a microbrewery and not a bad restaurant either, and a fun nightspot. Owner Michael Beirne is something of a city father, serving on the Wilder-Bliley Commission that led to the total scrapping of Richmond’s old form of government in favor of the full-time, strong mayor format. He also has served on other boards and commissions and has been a visible and constant booster of the city, especially downtown and the historic riverside neighborhoods of Shockoe Slip, Shockoe Bottom, Tobacco Row and environs.

Richbrau also was the host of the weekly Thursday Night Caucus, where lobbyists, staff and legislators get to know each other a little better away from the business confines and battles within the GAB and the aura of the capitol, while playing pool, drinking an adult beverage, even dancing. It’s also where the session-ending Sine Die Party is. Talk about a blast. Despite two months of haggling and outright legislative war, Sine Die is like a college reunion, where liberals and conservatives, lobbyists and lawmakers, this side and that, get together and reminisce, tell war stories and even let the other side in on secrets not dared to slip upon penalty of losing major clients and/or bills going down in flames. . .

You knew what? If you had told me that then I would have voted . . . !

You gotta hear this — remember that blight bill? You know what I told my deskmate before the vote? 

Each Thursday (and one Friday) for about eight weeks, Richbrau is where informal strategy sessions and favor promising took place. Now, it’s consigned to the sign of Richmond’s times. Fortune 500 companies Circuit City and LandAmerica went belly up last year, not to mention S&K and a number of local prides and joys. Adding insult to injury was the recent news that local grocery giant Ukrop’s, which had expanded into the Petersburg area, Fredericksburg, Williamsburg and Roanoke, was selling to a Dutch company. Now, Richbrau, which had remodeled two historic buildings in Shockoe Slip and prompted a microbrewing industry in Richmond that now boasts regional favorite brand Legend’s.

It’s another blow to the capital if not the capitol as downtown Richmond has no shortage of remarkable places for our two-month visitors to eat, drink and unwind. Surely, as of right now, the Sine Die commitee is scrambling for a new venue. But just as every two years, the General Assembly has different legislators, it remains intrinsically the same. In the end, this, too, will be the same. But it will be different, as well.

This is the second and final installment of an interview with nationally known political scientist Dr. Bob Holsworth. The former Virginia Commonwealth University dean is a regular commentator on Virginia and national politics. His writes for national and state publications, as well as on his widely read blog, Virginia Tomorrow, and is a frequent guest on television and radio. He also is an in-demand public speaker and heads his own consultancy. In yesterday’s first installment, we covered the current session of the General Assembly and touched on national politics. Today, we look at Virginia’s version of health care legislation, the upcoming 2010 mid-term elections, discuss U.S. Senator Jim Webb’s 2012 prospects, and examine the Tea Party movement in Virginia.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Which is the most interesting GOP Congressional District nominating contest — the 5th, 2nd or 11th — and why? How do you see those campaigns playing out?

Dr. Bob Holsworth: All of these races are very interesting because each of them is competitive. The number of entrants indicate that Republicans believe that 2010 may be a once in a generation opportunity, a year that could potentially rival 1994 in terms of GOP success. At the moment, the battle for the 5th District nomination to challenge Tom Perriello might be the most fascinating, if only because of the number of forces that are, or potentially are, in play, including ones that may have national implications.

There’s Robert Hurt, a highly respected member of the Senate who has considerable support from the party’s national establishment, but who is also being challenged largely by a set of conservative activists who maintain that Hurt has not been sufficiently supportive of low-tax, small government principles. One question that is being raised is whether the anti-Hurt forces will actually coalesce behind a single candidate or divide their vote in a primary? Recently, things have even gotten more complicated. At least one of the candidates currently in the nomination contest says that he is considering dropping out and running as an independent.

Moreover, Virgil Goode has said that he has not made up his mind about a possible challenge and could even run as an independent Republican. A poll out today says that in a three way race between Hurt, Perriello, and Goode, the former Congressman is in a tie with Perriello with Hurt running third. In any event, I think that a lot of national media will be looking at the 5th to see if the GOP can negotiate its internal tensions productively, something that will have to achieved if a candidate who is hard working and energetic as Tom Perriello is to be defeated.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Is there a credible Republican candidate in the wings to challenge Rick Boucher in the 9th Congressional District? Is Representative Boucher vulnerable?

Dr. Holsworth: It is usually very, very difficult to defeat a long-term incumbent such as Rick Boucher who has been widely applauded for his constituent service, even if a number of his votes may not be consistent with majority views in his district. But if there is a year in which Boucher is vulnerable, 2010 may be it. The problem for the GOP here is very different than in the 2nd, 5th and 11th — it’s not clear that the Republicans can recruit a strong challenger. Terry Kilgore and William Wampler have said no, though Eric Cantor was in town yesterday to see if “No” really means “No.” Morgan Griffith has said, however, that he is seriously considering entering the contest. If he does, he’ll be a formidable challenger — he’s tough, politically very skilled, and a very hard worker. But even with Griffith, this would be a tough race, because Boucher has built up a lot of support in the localities that make up the district. But if Morgan enters, it’ll be a great race.

FamilyFoundationBlog: How do you see the Tea Party movement in Virginia? Are these people disgruntled conservatives who normally vote Republican showing displeasure at the party (and who may have sat out in 2008) or are they new people getting involved for the first time who can make a difference in upcoming elections?

Dr. Holsworth: I think that it’s difficult to say that there is one kind of person attracted to the Tea Party. I think that there are a number of Republican conservatives disgruntled with what Glenn Beck calls “Progressives.” I also think that there are many of the same kind of independents who were initially attracted to Ross Perot in 1992 — ”the government is broken, we’re mad as hell and we’re not going to take it anymore.” And I think that there are also some people who may not have been very much involved in politics before, but have become mobilized by what they consider to be an inappropriate and ineffective response by the federal government to the economic downturn. It seems to me that they represent sentiments that are fairly broadly distributed at the moment throughout the general population and political figures would be foolish to ignore their perspective in 2010. At the same time, it is not so clear how their influence inside GOP nomination battles will play out and whether this will be positive or negative for the GOP in the general elections. This is one of the reasons why I’m watching the 5th District very closely since it has what appears to be a large and relatively organized set of Tea Party activists.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Are you surprised at how quickly and smoothly the Health Care Freedom legislation has moved through the General Assembly, especially in the Senate?

Dr. Holsworth: Yes. At least until you see that the five Democratic legislators sit in districts where (Governor Bob) McDonnell ran strong and where their own seats could be in jeopardy.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Speaking of health care, as well as all the new government spending Tea Party activists abhor, do you think Senators Webb and Warner have endangered their re-elections by voting for these programs? Will the new conservative movement stay active that long?

Dr. Holsworth: 2014 for Warner is a long, long way off. Webb will obviously have a serious Republican challenger. Webb will not be easy to pigeonhole because there will be numerous instances in both foreign and domestic policy where he will part company with the administration and the Democratic congressional leadership. A big question regarding Webb is how his progressive economic populism be viewed. Will he seen as too liberal for Virginia economically or as authentic guy willing to stand up for the voiceless?

FamilyFoundationBlog: Dr. Holsworth, thank you very much for your time. Your thoughts are always informative and I know our readers have learned a lot.

Below is the first part of a two part interview with nationally known political scientist Dr. Bob Holsworth, a regular commentator on Virginia and national politics. His articles and commentary can be read in publications and on the Internet, and heard on television and radio. He is a frequent speaker to numerous organizations, heads a consultancy, and is the editor of the widely read blog, Virginia Tomorrow. Today, we talk about the current session of the General Assembly and touch on national politics.

FamilyFoundationBlog.com: Dr. Holsworth, it’s a great honor to have you answer some questions on our blog about the General Assembly and Virginia politics in general. So, thank you very much for participating in this interview. We greatly appreciate your valuable time and look forward to your insights and are big fans of your blog, Virginia Tomorrow. Are you ready for some questions?

Dr. Bob Holsworth: Thanks very much for the opportunity to be on your site.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Has anything surprised you about this session of the General Assembly? Has the Republican sweep and increased House of Delegates majority created a visible difference or is it too early to tell (i.e., waiting for the budget)?

Dr. Holsworth: Certainly, the Republican sweep in the House has made it even easier for the GOP to control the legislative outcomes in that chamber. But the Democratic control of the Senate can still pose substantial hurdles for the Governor and the House GOP. I was surprised that five Democrats in the Senate supported the Health Care Freedom legislation, symbolically repudiating former Governor Kaine and President Obama. All of these Democrats are in districts where the GOP could field competitive challengers and this tells you just how concerned Democrats have become about the impact of the national mood here in Virginia. At the same time, Senate Dems have summarily dismissed part of the McDonnell agenda such as dedicating royalties for off-shore drilling to transportation and changing the budget cycle. What will happen with the overall budget is still up in the air as Senate Dems actually disagree if they should present a budget that includes some of the tax increases in (former) Governor Kaine’s recommended document or acknowledge the political reality that there will be no major tax increases and present a budget accordingly, even if it inconsistent with what they would really want to propose.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Governor Bob McDonnell ran on a jobs-creation platform and de-emphasized social issues. But social issues do play a role in the budget. Do you think he will go so far as to de-fund Planned Parenthood?

Dr. Holsworth: I think that you have phrased the question well. Some folks have said that McDonnell ran as a “moderate.” My sense is that he ran as an economic conservative and gave less priority in the campaign to his social conservatism. I fully expect that McDonnell will sign almost all bills with a “social conservative” orientation that emerge from the legislative process. What’s not entirely clear is how far his own proposals will move in this direction. He obviously made a symbolic change when he removed sexual orientation from the non-discrimination executive order with respect to state government workers. The question of whether he’ll propose a budget amendment to de-fund panned parenthood will be seen by many of his supporters as a test of whether he will implement the values of social conservatism in the budget. If he does, there will be a substantial fight in the Senate and the media will surely portray it as a switch from the “moderation” of the campaign. If he doesn’t, he’ll disappoint a segment of his core supporters.

FamilyFoundationBlog: If Governor McDonnell proposes a host of “fees” instead of taxes to close the budget gap, how will that affect his support on the right? creation

Dr. Holsworth: If McDonnell is perceived as simply playing semantics with taxes, it will harm him not only with the right, but with many independents as well. He was very clear during the election about his belief that revenue increases should primarily come from economic growth and I would be very surprised if he has a post-election conversion to a different point of view, especially in this political environment.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Governor McDonnell is getting a lot of positive attention right now — giving the GOP response to the State of the Union, doing several national interviews, even one for Newt Gingrich’s newsletter. Does he runs the risk of raising his own expectations?

Dr. Holsworth: I think of the smartest moves the new Governor made was to cancel his national interviews the day after his SOTU response. Virginians have made it clear that his first priority as Governor should be the Commonwealth and, in the long run, McDonnell’s national stature will be most enhanced by having a strong approval rating in-state.

FamilyFoundationBlog: What chances do you give of real reforms this or next year in areas of budgeting and in recalculating SOQ spending?

Dr. Holsworth: The Senate has already rejected a key McDonnell proposal on changing the two year budget cycle. Recalculating SOQ spending has been an issue that many House Republicans have pointed to over the last few years as a reform necessary to rein in future budget increases. We’ve seen some willingness from both parties to look at items such as staffing ratios regarding non-instructional personnel. If there ever would be a time where the entire SOQ calculation would be readjusted, it would be in the kind of fiscal environment we have now. But polls show that schools remain extremely high on the public’s priority list. In aggregate, school groups (teachers, superintendents, school boards, and principals) are extraordinarily well organized and very politically effective. Moreover, Virginia schools overall seem to perform extremely well — just this week, we ranked third in the nation in AP testing. I believe that the effort for major permanent structural changes in school funding will have substantial hurdles to overcome.

FamilyFoundationBlog: What are your thoughts on former Governor Doug Wilder calling for Tim Kaine’s removal as Democrat National Committee chairman?

Dr. Holsworth: Former Governor Wilder noted that he had supported Tim Kaine for Vice-President, but did not feel that the DNC Chair was the best fit for his talents and skills. My guess is that there are a number of Democratic activists who are more comfortable with the sharp edges of a Howard Dean than the more cerebral approach to the position of Tim Kaine. The proof, of course, will be in the November pudding. Kaine will succeed if Democrats do far better than expected. But if November is a Democratic debacle, Kaine will be fingered for part of the blame.

Be sure to check back with us tomorrow afternoon for part two of our interview with Dr. Bob Holsworth as we look at next year’s Congressional elections in Virginia, Senator Jim Webb’s prospects in 2012, and the Tea Party movement.