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Annotations & Elucidations 

Close Of Business, October 2009

Another month, another campaign draws toward conclusion. Where does the time go? Where does life go? A sign of the times: Campaign news is light today. Everyone is expecting an anti-climatic GOP blowout. But will it be? What about New Jersey and the special Congressional election in upstate New York? If the Dems pull those out will that blunt any GOP resurgence nationally otherwise gained from a Virginia sweep? If the numbers hold, how many Republican delegates will win? Retirements alone guarantee a large freshman class in January.

About today’s headlines: The Richmond Times-Dispatch gets up close and personal with the LG candidates and the Washington Times already is analyzing where Creigh Deeds went wrong. Why is it always where Creigh Deeds went wrong? Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli have done a lot right. Meanwhile, political soothsayer Dr. Larry Sabato offers his predictions on the election.

Nationally: It’s unfortunate that several pastors in Washington, D.C., are supporting homosexual “marriage” there; the AP reports that, indeed, abortion funding is in the health care “reform” bill; and sociologist Brad Wilcox of U.Va., and The Family Foundation Marriage Commission, caught the AP’s attention with his research that faith helps marriages!

In Commentary, Dr. Thomas Sowell offers part two of his “Dismantling of America” exposition, the first part of which we posted earlier this week, and which drew considerable praise from Rush Limbaugh, among others. Also, a skin care company is using fetal cells in its product; Tim Kaine’s DNC has selected as a finalist in a contest promoting the health care bill a video that desecrates the American flag; and a high ranking Obama administration official reveals her “ultimate expression of self-righteous victimhood.” This is the weekend we move our clocks back and it gets dark earlier. How appropriate.

News:

Candidates for lieutenant governor come with different backgrounds (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Republicans rally supporters in Lynchburg as Election Day nears (Lynchburg News & Advance)

Money, missteps cost Deeds in polls for gubernatorial race (Washington Times)

Deeds makes stop in Roanoke (Roanoke Times)

National News: 

Health care businesses at risk in House overhaul (AP/OneNewsNow.com)

Believe it or not . . . abortion funding is in health care bill (OneNewsNow.com) 

Sociologist: Faith benefits marriage and family life (AP/OneNewsNow.com)

Pastors unite to support same-sex marriage in D.C. (Washington Post)

Analysis:

So who’s going to win? (Dr. Larry Sabato/Center For Politics)

Commentary:

Dismantling America, Part II(Thomas Sowell/OneNewsNow.com)

Desecrated Flag Video Is Finalist In DNC Contest(Tasha Easterling/Rightly Concerned Blog)

Got Waste? No Surprises There (Jeremy Wiggins/Rightly Concerned Blog)

Skin Care Company Using Fetal Cells In Anti-Wrinkle Cream (Jeremy Wiggins/Rightly Concerned Blog)

Obama Advisor: We’re Just Speaking Truth To Power (Tasha Easterling/Rightly Concerned Blog)

Over the last 24 hours two more polls were released, one by Democrat pollsters Public Policy Polling and the other by SurveyUSA for Roanoke television station WDBJ. Neither typically are considered top tier polls — not necessarily in the same league as Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen. But they have shown interesting, sometimes contradictory, results this campaign season. But now both show Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell with commanding double digit leads (14 and 19 points, respectively). Each also has the other two Republican candidates, Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and attorney general nominee Senator Ken Cuccinelli (Fairfax), up by healthy double digit margins. Does the fact that these two newer polls to Virginia politics both show the same trend (though different margins) verify a trend?

One who pretty much said so today was U.Va. political soothsayer Larry Sabato. On WRVA radio’s Richmond’s Morning News With Jimmy Barrett, he wouldn’t go that far — yet. But he crept up to to the line, which, for Dr. Sabato, is saying a great deal. He said he would release his Crystal Ball’s predictions next week.

Listen to Larry Sabato’s interview (6:55) with Jimmy Barrett by clicking here.

Here is the analysis (including methodology) and internal numbers from the two polls, including from the polling organizations themselves:

Public Policy Polling 

McDonnell starting to pull away (PublicPolicyPolling.com)

Another Poll Suggests McDonnell Pulling Away From Deeds (CQPolitics Blog)

McDonnell up 12 pts. in new poll (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Both

McDonnell Opens Double-Digit Lead Over Deeds in Virginia (Politics Daily Poll Watch Blog)

SurveyUSA

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15927 (SurveyUSA.com)

SurveyUSA Shows McDonnell Clinging to a 59–40 Lead (National Review Online’s The Campaign Spot Blog)

News7 Poll: Republicans hold comfortable leads in statewide contests (WDBJ7.com)

I’ve often enjoyed reading the commentary of University of Virginia professor and political analyst Larry Sabato. Not because I agree with him, which I normally don’t, but often just for the humor that I find in his typical rage against the right. How anyone sees this guy as objective is beyond me.

In today’s Virginian-Pilot, Mr. Sabato finally “comes out,” so to speak, making it abundantly clear about his view of conservatives and in particular, the dreaded “Christian right.” Shockingly, he urges Republican nominee for governor Bob McDonnell to distance himself from conservative Christians:

In his campaign for governor, McDonnell is positioning himself as a moderate Republican.

“One of the underlying concerns that many thoughtful Virginians have about McDonnell are his ties to the Christian right,” Sabato said. “I can’t tell you how many times senior people have asked, ‘Who will Bob McDonnell appoint to the 4,000 appointments he gets?’ ‘Who will run the college boards of visitors and the state agencies?’

“The reasons these questions matter to the people asking them is they fear it will be the far right and the Christian conservatives,” he said.

“I can guarantee you whoever the Democratic nominee is, that’s going to be one of his major lines of attack: McDonnell is tied to the far Christian right and he will disproportionately make his appointments from that group. And that’s not where Virginia is anymore. That will send the key independent and swing voters to the Democrats.”

So, let’s see . . . if you are a “thoughtful Virginian” you clearly have to be concerned about McDonnell and the “Christian right.” The implication is, of course, that if you are the “Christian right” you must not be thoughtful.  (You know who you are — the “poor uneducated and easy to command” as the media once referred to you.)

Plus, and perhaps most importantly, those ties “will send key independent and swing voters to the Democrats.” Not “might send” or “probably will send” or “could send,” but Mr. Sabato categorically has decided that if you are an independent or swing voter you simply aren’t going to vote for a conservative. I guess you might as well stop thinking now.

Let’s cut to the chase here. The last people Republican candidates need to be listening to are media pundits (next to, perhaps, their consultants). Sabato clearly wants Democrats to win elections — the debate over his objectivity is over. This is really what he’s saying: “If you’re a Republican please don’t run as an actual conservative Republican with any of those principles you used to talk about, you know, back when you used to actually win elections.  Since you have been losing by avoiding principle, please continue with that strategy. It’ll work this time, I promise.”

This diatribe (which J.R. Hoeft at Bearing Drift addresses masterfully here) is getting seriously old and it is astonishing that any “thoughtful Virginians” are influenced by it.

It does all bring back memories of Charlie Brown and Lucy and the football.  Remember, Lucy would promise time and time again to hold the ball and this time she’ll actually let Charlie Brown kick it. And Charlie Brown eagerly falls for the lie every time. 

Time will tell whether Mr. McDonnell listens to Lucy and goes to kick that football again.