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Annotations & Elucidations 

No Obama Affect

Looks like there won’t be much of an Obama affect in Virginia. Despite at least a month of radio ads, two weeks of television ads, two appearances by Veep Joe Biden, and now a second campaign stop (not to mention all that DNC cash) for Creigh Deeds, four more polls (Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, Public Policy Polling and VCU’s Commonwealth Poll) show not just a McDonnell landslide, but an unprecedented GOP landslide sweep. (The only other GOP sweep in Virginia history, in 1997, featured a close lieutenant governor’s race won by John Hager over L.F. Payne.) Not that Obama seems to care. His speech in Norfolk was less than Obamaesque and not particularly rousing on the senator’s behalf, with deprecating humor about not wearing his tie straight and something about his hair. It seems the best the POTUS could do was call him “not slick.” About the last question that remains is whether the pending landslide will result in appreciable Republican gains in the House of Delegates. 

Meanwhile, the media hits keep coming from our Annual Gala Monday night. See the national attention we received from CitizenLink.org in our top story below.

News:

*Gov. Mike Huckabee Speaks at Virginia Gala (CitizenLink.org)

McDonnell’s lead grows (Public Policy Polling Blog)

VCU poll gives Bob McDonnell healthy lead (Decision Virginia Blog/NBC12.com)

Polls: Big GOP lead in Va., N.J. tight (Politico.com)

News7 Poll: Republicans hold double digit leads in statewide contests (WDBJ-TV/WDBJ7.com)

Virginia Governor: McDonnell Stretches Lead To 13 (RasmussenReports.com)

Polls: Big GOP lead in Va.; N.J. race tight (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Deeds reaches for ‘Obama energy’ (Washington Post)

Obama rallies for Deeds in Va. (Washington Times)

At Norfolk rally, Obama urges backers to boost Deeds (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Obama makes pitch for Deeds at Norfolk rally (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot) 

Attorney general rivals are worlds apart despite geographic ties (The Daily Press)

GOP adds $40,000 to Gear’s re-election effort (The Daily Press)

Valentine, Garrett rack up campaign donations (Lynchburg News & Advance)

Your voting history could end up in the neighbor’s mailbox (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Diradour drops bid to challenge Cantor (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Hate-crimes bill spurs some worry from religious groups (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

National News:

Debating gay marriage (Washington Times)

Over the last 24 hours two more polls were released, one by Democrat pollsters Public Policy Polling and the other by SurveyUSA for Roanoke television station WDBJ. Neither typically are considered top tier polls — not necessarily in the same league as Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen. But they have shown interesting, sometimes contradictory, results this campaign season. But now both show Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell with commanding double digit leads (14 and 19 points, respectively). Each also has the other two Republican candidates, Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and attorney general nominee Senator Ken Cuccinelli (Fairfax), up by healthy double digit margins. Does the fact that these two newer polls to Virginia politics both show the same trend (though different margins) verify a trend?

One who pretty much said so today was U.Va. political soothsayer Larry Sabato. On WRVA radio’s Richmond’s Morning News With Jimmy Barrett, he wouldn’t go that far — yet. But he crept up to to the line, which, for Dr. Sabato, is saying a great deal. He said he would release his Crystal Ball’s predictions next week.

Listen to Larry Sabato’s interview (6:55) with Jimmy Barrett by clicking here.

Here is the analysis (including methodology) and internal numbers from the two polls, including from the polling organizations themselves:

Public Policy Polling 

McDonnell starting to pull away (PublicPolicyPolling.com)

Another Poll Suggests McDonnell Pulling Away From Deeds (CQPolitics Blog)

McDonnell up 12 pts. in new poll (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Both

McDonnell Opens Double-Digit Lead Over Deeds in Virginia (Politics Daily Poll Watch Blog)

SurveyUSA

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15927 (SurveyUSA.com)

SurveyUSA Shows McDonnell Clinging to a 59–40 Lead (National Review Online’s The Campaign Spot Blog)

News7 Poll: Republicans hold comfortable leads in statewide contests (WDBJ7.com)

We’re awash in polls right now and the attending controversy they inevitably entail. But a new poll released a few hours ago may shed light on which polls are more accurate — or not (see Politico.com).

Rasmussen Reports today released a poll that shows Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell leading his Democrat opponent, Senator Creigh Deeds, 51-42 (see RasmussenReports.com). Rasmussen’s previous poll had the difference at only two percentage points, contributing to the perception of a tightening race. Subsequent polls from the liberal Washington Post (a four-point difference), which has endorsed Deeds, and Public Policy Polling, a Democrat leaning firm, (a five-point difference) confirmed that perception.

Yesterday, however, a SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll had the GOP ticket up by double digits. But it was largely ignored by the Mainstream Media because its results are out of line with the others. Now, the very reputable Rasmussen poll seems as close to the SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll as it does the PPP poll (which one Richmond radio station reported on for a full 24 hours). Furthermore, even the PPP poll has Republican Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and attorney general candidate Senator Ken Cuccinelli up by eight and nine points, respectively, further validating the point of view that the GOP ticket has a significant lead.

Who’s right — those who say it’s close or those who think the GOP is on its way? We won’t know until election day. But Rasmussen does have a track record. According to a testimonial on its Web site, it ”produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.” None other than Virginia politico guru Dr. Larry Sabato said it.

Two polls on Virginia’s statewide campaigns were released within the last 48 hours: one, by the Democrat leaning polling firm, Public Policy Polling, and one by SurveyUSA for Roanoke television station WDBJ-TV. It is interesting to note that the PPP poll has received exponential media coverage, lasting well into the second day after it was released. The SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll was released last night but is hardly causing a blip on the Mainstream Media’s radar screen.

The most likely explanation is that the SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll seems out of whack when compared to other polls. While many have the governor’s race in a four to seven point range, in favor of Republican Bob McDonnell, the SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll shows him up by double digits, as it does his running mates Lt. Governor Bill Bolling, running for re-election, and Senator Ken Cuccinelli (R-37, Fairfax), running for attorney general. Still, that’s never stopped the notoriously out of proportion Washington Post polls from getting top billing across the state. 

In what has gone practically unmentioned in the frenzy of the tightening of PPP’s poll, however, is that it also shows Lt. Governor Bolling and Senator Cuccinelli leading by eight and nine points, respectively. So, we have a Mainstream Media cherry picking news even from the one poll on which it has focused. Not only that, but by its own admission, the PPP poll’s “internals” do not show bad news for McDonnell. Among the fndings (see PPP Blog here):

52% of voters say they’re very familiar with the thesis and McDonnell actually has a 55-41 {lead} with that group, reflecting the fact that Republicans are more engaged this year and following the campaign more closely. Deeds is up 56-41 with the 29% of voters who claim moderate knowledge of the thesis.

(Does this mean conservative voters are more informed, or just that they don’t watch MSNBC?)

In another blog post,PPP’s Tom Jensen writes that Democrat candidate Creigh Deeds leads among voters who were undecided a month ago by 35-32 percent, and lists this as an advantage for him. But it’s within the margin of error and not enough to close the gap.

Back to SurveyUSA. Here’s a link to its methodology and complete statistical breakdown. It survey 1,000 Virginians, 886 of them registered to vote, and filtered its responses to the 631 of them determined to be likely voters this November.

Public Policy Polling, a Democrat polling organization, released a new poll this morning (see its news release here) that shows Republican Bob McDonnell maintaining a lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia’s governor’s race by a 48-43 margin. This is smaller than previous polls. However, given the leftward slant of the organization, and the relentless attacks by Deeds on McDonnell for the last three weeks, it appears to be good news for the Republican. See Bruce Drake at his PoliticsDaily.com Poll Watch Blog here for insight on the internal numbers, while the Richmond Times-Dispatch mentions methodology here.

Republican consultant Peter Foster looked at the poll’s internals and offered us this analysis of how the numbers must play out for each candidate:

The good news is that McDonnell continues to lead by five points heading into the final month. While this is closer than they (PPP) had the race two months ago, that appears to be entirely the result of Democrats waking up and realizing there’s an election going on. McDonnell still leads among independents by a margin of 53-37 percent, and he’s getting 96 percent of the Republican vote. Deeds is getting 82 percent of the Democrat vote. One potential issue with these poll numbers is that they probably oversampled Democrats overall, as their respondents are 37 percent Democrat, only 29 percent Republican, and 34 percent self-identified independent. I seriously doubt that that will be an accurate reflection of the Election Day turnout, but, for argument’s sake, let’s play with those numbers.

The reason to expect the race to continue to get closer is that of the nine percent who are undecided, 53 percent are Democrats, while only seven percent are Republicans. The other 40 percent are independents. Currently, McDonnell is getting 98 percent of the Republicans who have made up their minds and 59 percent of independents who have made up their minds, and Creigh Deeds is getting 94 percent of Democrats who have made up their minds. If you follow that formula and give McDonnell 98 percent of the Republican undecideds and 59 percent of the independent undecideds, and give Deeds 94 percent of the Democratic undecideds, then this adds up to a very close race on Election Day, with McDonnell winning with 51.03 percent of the vote.

The bottom line is that McDonnell is in the stronger position headed into the final month, but it’s going to be a very close race, and, regardless of what the turnout percentages end up being in terms of Republican, Democrat and independent, if McDonnell maintains his levels of support among Republicans and among independents, he’ll win in a close race.

Once last thing to consider are two factors are not fully measured by the polls. One is the lower turnout among specific, traditional Democrat voting blocs, such as black voters, which surely will be affected by former governor, and fellow Democrat, Doug Wilder’s refusal to endorse Deeds, as well as some liberal base groups who are turned off by his flip-flops over the years on social issues. The second is under reported story — the registration of thousands of new conservative voters by several organizations, such as pro-life, Second Amendment and Tea Party groups.

What a 24 hours for Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell: First, as reported in the Norfolk Virginian-Pilot’s Pilot on Politics Blog yesterday, a poll by the whack job leftist blog Daily Kos, conducted by Research 2000, has McDonnell up over Democrat Creigh Deeds by a 51-43 margin (see poll internals, here).

This is on the heels of polls this week by WDBJ-TV/SurveyUSA that showed him up by 15 percentage points and Public Policy Polling (another liberal pollster) that showed him up by 14 percentage points. (These two polls also show Republicans Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and attorney general candidate Ken Cuccinelli leading their Democrat opponents by double figures.)

Then, McDonnell was selected by House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) to give the Republican response to President Barack Obama’s weekly radio/Internet address. In it, McDonnell puts some realism into the hype of yesterday’s unemployment report (the rate went down, but 240,000 more jobs were lost) and spoke plainly and practically about the dangers of government takeovers of the energy (so-called “cap-and-trade”) and health care industries, as well as enabling union dominance at the expense of employee freedom (”card check”); and a how dynamic society free of unnecessary government regulation and litigation can create a prosperous economy. 

Bob McDonnell points to positive policies that unleash freedom and creativity; “cap-and-trade” would put 1,500 Virginians out of work at the MeadWestvaco Plant in Covington.