FamilyFoundationBlog.com

Annotations & Elucidations 

No Obama Affect

Looks like there won’t be much of an Obama affect in Virginia. Despite at least a month of radio ads, two weeks of television ads, two appearances by Veep Joe Biden, and now a second campaign stop (not to mention all that DNC cash) for Creigh Deeds, four more polls (Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, Public Policy Polling and VCU’s Commonwealth Poll) show not just a McDonnell landslide, but an unprecedented GOP landslide sweep. (The only other GOP sweep in Virginia history, in 1997, featured a close lieutenant governor’s race won by John Hager over L.F. Payne.) Not that Obama seems to care. His speech in Norfolk was less than Obamaesque and not particularly rousing on the senator’s behalf, with deprecating humor about not wearing his tie straight and something about his hair. It seems the best the POTUS could do was call him “not slick.” About the last question that remains is whether the pending landslide will result in appreciable Republican gains in the House of Delegates. 

Meanwhile, the media hits keep coming from our Annual Gala Monday night. See the national attention we received from CitizenLink.org in our top story below.

News:

*Gov. Mike Huckabee Speaks at Virginia Gala (CitizenLink.org)

McDonnell’s lead grows (Public Policy Polling Blog)

VCU poll gives Bob McDonnell healthy lead (Decision Virginia Blog/NBC12.com)

Polls: Big GOP lead in Va., N.J. tight (Politico.com)

News7 Poll: Republicans hold double digit leads in statewide contests (WDBJ-TV/WDBJ7.com)

Virginia Governor: McDonnell Stretches Lead To 13 (RasmussenReports.com)

Polls: Big GOP lead in Va.; N.J. race tight (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Deeds reaches for ‘Obama energy’ (Washington Post)

Obama rallies for Deeds in Va. (Washington Times)

At Norfolk rally, Obama urges backers to boost Deeds (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Obama makes pitch for Deeds at Norfolk rally (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot) 

Attorney general rivals are worlds apart despite geographic ties (The Daily Press)

GOP adds $40,000 to Gear’s re-election effort (The Daily Press)

Valentine, Garrett rack up campaign donations (Lynchburg News & Advance)

Your voting history could end up in the neighbor’s mailbox (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Diradour drops bid to challenge Cantor (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Hate-crimes bill spurs some worry from religious groups (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

National News:

Debating gay marriage (Washington Times)

Over the last 24 hours two more polls were released, one by Democrat pollsters Public Policy Polling and the other by SurveyUSA for Roanoke television station WDBJ. Neither typically are considered top tier polls — not necessarily in the same league as Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen. But they have shown interesting, sometimes contradictory, results this campaign season. But now both show Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell with commanding double digit leads (14 and 19 points, respectively). Each also has the other two Republican candidates, Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and attorney general nominee Senator Ken Cuccinelli (Fairfax), up by healthy double digit margins. Does the fact that these two newer polls to Virginia politics both show the same trend (though different margins) verify a trend?

One who pretty much said so today was U.Va. political soothsayer Larry Sabato. On WRVA radio’s Richmond’s Morning News With Jimmy Barrett, he wouldn’t go that far — yet. But he crept up to to the line, which, for Dr. Sabato, is saying a great deal. He said he would release his Crystal Ball’s predictions next week.

Listen to Larry Sabato’s interview (6:55) with Jimmy Barrett by clicking here.

Here is the analysis (including methodology) and internal numbers from the two polls, including from the polling organizations themselves:

Public Policy Polling 

McDonnell starting to pull away (PublicPolicyPolling.com)

Another Poll Suggests McDonnell Pulling Away From Deeds (CQPolitics Blog)

McDonnell up 12 pts. in new poll (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Both

McDonnell Opens Double-Digit Lead Over Deeds in Virginia (Politics Daily Poll Watch Blog)

SurveyUSA

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15927 (SurveyUSA.com)

SurveyUSA Shows McDonnell Clinging to a 59–40 Lead (National Review Online’s The Campaign Spot Blog)

News7 Poll: Republicans hold comfortable leads in statewide contests (WDBJ7.com)

Annotations & Elucidations 

The Almost All Virginia Edition

This monster edition of the News Stand is almost all Virginia. Except for a very interesting piece about the beginning of the dismantling of campaign finance reform free speech restrictions by the D.C Court of Appeals, it’s all about the campaign. Most of it is about the race for governor, but we have several pieces on House races and one on the AG campaign, along with analysis and commentary by John Fund, Fred Barnes and others (this must be important if the national types are peering in).

There are a few articles to point out, including a blog post at the Post. With all the talk of Democrat Creigh Deeds closing in on Republican Bob McDonnell, as two polls last week (including Rasmussen) indicated Deeds was within two points, three polls have emerged to show it’s not quite that close. The Post’s own poll has McDonnell up by four and still over the 50 percent  threshold, while the Clarus Poll has him up by five and the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll has him up by seven. (Interestingly, the Post’s Anita Kumar writes that she doesn’t trust polls but says this one is one she “doesn’t mind telling you about.” Why? Because the Kos is ultra hard leftist or because it shows McDonnell up by a larger margin than her paper’s poll? Hmmm.) 

Elsewhere of note, the Post has two articles on A) Deeds’ union ties and B) that business in Virginia is suspicious of him. So much for that Mark Warner legacy.

Of course, it wouldn’t be campaign season without the Mainstream Media hit pieces on conservatives, and the lil’ ol’ Loudon Insider got into the act with Hollywood tabloid-style “reporting.” It brought up a charge filed years ago against a Republican House candidate when he was in the Army — even though the Army’s investigation found that he wasn’t even at the place where the witness claimed he was. The case was dismissed. Then there’s the ongoing dishonesty of Democrat Tom Shields running in the 73rd House district.

The Post can’t resist, either, and asks about perceptions of “McDonnell’s alma mater.” Other than Charlie Weis on the hot seat, what’s wrong Notre Dame? Perhaps this? Of course, not!

Finally, you know it’s been a rough week for Senator Deeds when even the Post’s liberal columnist Robert McCartney blasts him for his poor debate and post-debate performances! 

News:

McDonnell 50, Deeds 43 (Washington Post Virginia Politics Blog)

Deeds Shows Big Gains In Va. Poll (Washington Post)

Deeds narrows contest, poll finds (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Republican loses some ground in poll (Northern Virginia Daily)

Unions Investing Heavily In Deeds (Washington Post)

Businesses Taking a Hard Look At Deeds (Washington Post)

Deeds, McDonnell split over environmental policy (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Wilder: Va. race a referendum on Obama (Washington Times)

McDonnell and Deeds couldn’t escape lingering questions at Roanoke meeting (Roanoke Times)

Issues of Perception Try McDonnell’s Alma Mater (Washington Post)

Gloves come off in Va. governor’s debate (Washington Times)

Gubernatorial debate turns contentious in N.Va. (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Deeds, McDonnell clash in gubernatorial debate (The Daily Press)

Deeds, McDonnell throw sharp jabs in debate (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Deeds, McDonnell square off in debate (Roanoke Times)

Thrust and Parry Over Va.’s Future (Washington Post)

Cuccinelli wants to shift consumer watchdog into attorney general’s office (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Greason Rebukes 1994 Charges (Loudon Insider)

Del. O’Bannon says Shields’ charges are false (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Marrow Promotes Nurse Practitioners (Harrisonburg Daily News-Record)

Will Hamilton lose appropriations seat? (The Daily Press Shad Plank Blog)

Audit: Little evidence of work by Del. Hamilton at ODU (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

ODU cites ‘mistakes’ with Del. Hamilton (The Daily Press)

Audit: ‘Little documentation’ of services by Hamilton to ODU (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Democrats get financial boost in House races (Roanoke Times)

Analysis:

Virginia Moves Back to the Right (Fred Barnes/Wall Street Journal)

Deeds in a Bit of a Bind on Taxes, Transportation (Washington Post)

Word and Deed (John Fund/Wall Street Journal)

Commentary:

Plain and Simple, Deeds Stumbles In N.Va. Debate (Robert McCartney/Washington Post)

National News:

Court Strikes Down Regulations Limiting Nonprofits’ Campaign Funds (Washington Post)