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Annotations & Elucidations 

Polls, Debates And Third Party Ads

It’s all about the race to Richmond now (except for a new twist on the Senator Norment situation). Even CBS News is jumping into the coverage. With two weeks left there’s a bombardment of polls by every pollster this side of Minsk who wants to play Kreskin. Today, two more were released: One from Christopher Newport University and one from Clarus Research Group. In the campaign for governor, CNU has Republican Bob McDonnell up by 14 (not likely) but his running mate, Lt. Governor Bill Bolling, up by just a few (even less likely), while Republican attorney general candidate, Senator Ken Cuccinelli (R-37, Fairfax), up by something more than a handful (we’ll buy that; it’s consistent with other polls). Clarus is more in line with the Mason-Dixon and the Washington Post polls: McDonnell up eight, Bolling up seven (still seems light) and Cuccinelli up eight, but with many more undecideds in the latter two races.

If there aren’t enough polls for you, the third party ads are in high gear now: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the NRA have jumped in on McDonnell’s behalf, though not likely offsetting the big labor putsch for Democrat Creigh Deeds. Debates are also in high gear as tonight’s last gubernatorial version should be fun, especially since it is not on statewide television (embarrassing). Democrat Jody Wagner and Lt. Governor Bolling got into it last night. A math test for Ms. Wagner would’ve been more fun, though.

But will any of this matter? The Dems don’t think so. Virginia Democrat Party Chairman Dickie Cranwell says his side’s get-out-the-vote machinery will do the trick. That’s why President Obama is coming in for Senator Deeds. Of course, the last three elections the Republicans bragged about their turnout operation as well. Ask Governor Kilgore. But if the Dems can confound the pollsters, it’ll be because of their newfound and robust voter rolls and sheer force of numbers. Right now, it’s their only chance. 

News:

McDonnell Pulls Away in Va. Gov. Race; Tie in N.J. (CBSNews.com)

CNU poll: McDonnell holds double-digit lead in Va. gov race (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

McDonnell Expands Lead in Virginia Governor’s Race: GOP tops all three statewide elections in new Clarus Poll (ClarusRG.com)  

NRA’s New Ad: McDonnell Protects You From “Them” (TheAtlantic.com)

Deeds campaign to focus on getting Obama supporters to polls (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Deeds races to hook true-blue Democrats (Washington Post)

Deeds, McDonnell to debate for last time tonight (Washington Post)

Lieutenant governor hopefuls’ debate becomes heated (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Lt. Gov. candidates spar over attendance (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

In Sept., Dems outspent GOP in Va. House contests (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Garrett and Valentine spar on taxes, transportation, tuition (Lynchburg News & Advance)

Economy, jobs key issues in 7th District (Roanoke Times)

Sen. Norment and Attorney General’s office release opinion on W&M job (The Shad Plank Blog)

Annotations & Elucidations 

The Debate/Mason-Dixon Edition

The news is almost all campaign, with several national articles (including the New York Times, which has two pieces — one specifically on Virginia, in the News section, and one on Virginia and New Jersey and their national implications, in National News) continuing to shine the national flood lights on the commonwealth. Tonight is also debate night, the first live televised one. Will Democrat Creigh Deeds apologize for his negative campaign? Will he finally explain his transportation and tax increase plans (his last attempt at explaining the latter was called “embarrassing” today by his patron, the Washington Post, and now has been turned into a new ad, which will begin running tonight).

Now the Dems, including DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, are targeting Senator Ken Cuccinelli. He began an ad they say is unfair and misrepresents Democrat attorney general candidate Steve Shannon’s position on the special session that remedied a Supreme Court decision that would ceased prosecutions on drunk drivers and drug offenders. Hmmm. How do you misrepresent Shannon’s view? Calling it a “political stunt” is pretty hard to misinterpret.

But the big news was the release of Mason-Dixon’s first poll this campaign season. Mason-Dixon is the gold standard in Virginia political polls. The last poll it conducts, the Sunday before each election day, has never predicted the wrong winner, so it is awaited with baited breath. Its 2009 debut has all three Republicans leading: Bob McDonnell up by eight for governor, Lt. Governor Bill Bollingup by 13, and Cuccinelli up by seven. Not to be outdone, however, is SurveyUSA, which conducted another poll last week for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke and WJLA-TV in Washington (its fourth consecutive weekly poll). It was mostly drowned out by the Washington Post poll results, which showed all three Republicans up by nine. SurveyUSA has the three Republicans up by 11, 17 and 10, respectively. Details on everything mentioned above, and more, are below.

News:

Mason-Dixon Poll: McDonnell up by 8 points over Deeds (Richmond Times-Dispatch/Lynchburg News & Advance) 

Mason-Dixon Shows McDonnell by 8 (Washington Post Virginia Politics Blog)

Poll: GOP’s Bolling, Cuccinelli lead (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Virginia: 4 Weeks Until Votes Are Counted, Republicans Remain Poised to Win 3 Top Statewide Contests (SurveyUSA.com)

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll (SurveyUSA.com)

Va. Candidates Meet Tonight in First Live TV Debate (Washington Post)

Debate a major moment in Va. governor’s race (AP/The Daily Press)

Two State Races May Put Lens on Obama (New York Times)

GOP Launches New Ad on Deeds and Taxes (Washington Post Virginia Politics Blog)

Cuccinelli Airs New Ad; Shannon, Kaine Protest (Washington Post Virginia Politics Blog) 

Kaine says Obama supporters key for Deeds (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Biden calls Virginia race winnable for Deeds…. (The Shad Plank Blog)

Debate in House race heats up over transportation question (Lynchburg News & Advance)

8th District candidates debate in Roanoke Co. (Roanoke Times)

Sexually explicit novel pulled from Roanoke school libraries (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

National News:

Democrats May Lose Two Governors Races (Reuters/New York Times)

McDonnell Holds GOP Comeback Hopes in Virginia; Dems Hope Deeds Bet Pays Off  (PoliticsDaily.com)

House Votes to Add Sexual Orientation to Law on Hate Crimes (Washington Post)

Analysis:

Republican sweep looking likely in Virginia (Josh Kraushaar/The Scorecard Blog Politico.com)

Annotations & Elucidations 

The Late And Washington Post Poll Edition

The big news was from the Washington Post this afternoon, when it releases its latest poll showing all three Republicans — Bob McDonnell, Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and Senator Ken Cuccinelli — leading their respective races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general by nine points. The other big news today concerning the statewide races is that Cuccinelli’s opponent for attorney general, Democrat Delegate Steve Shannon, tried to emulate his gubernatorial ticket mate Creigh Deeds in question dodging (see Tertium Quids below). Who does it better? You watch. You decide.

Other than that, the debt is at third world levels, the CBO says BaucusCare is nearly as expensive, the Supreme Court hears a religious liberty case, and a more ineffective “jobs programs” is on its way. The good news is that we have some superior insights from Larry Kudlow, Michelle Malkin, Bobby Eberle, Michael Barone and Lisa Fabrizio on ObamaCare, his Olympic flame-out and political weakness, and how to create real and plenty jobs.  

News:

McDonnell Widens Lead in Virginia Governor’s Race (Washington Post)

WaPo Poll: McDonnell, Bolling, Cuccinelli all +9 (Tertium Quids Blog)

Explicit ‘Banned Book’ Infuriates Virginia Father, Leads to School Review (FoxNews.com)

Democrats beg Deeds for positive message (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

Democrats vowing to hold strong in fight for governor (Northern Virginia Daily)

Deeds avoids Obama, embraces Warner (Washington Times)

Videos Highlight Dueling Images (Washington Post)

Meanwhile, at the AG Debate . . . (Tertium Quids Blog)

Delegates candidates speak at Henrico forum (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Contrasting Candidates Enter Final Month In Race For House Of Delegates (Harrisonburg Daily News-Record)

Hurt will seek GOP nomination to challenge Perriello (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

National News:

Sharp debate at high court over cross on US land (AP/GOPUSA.com)

CBO: Budget deficit triples to record $1.4T in 2009 (AP/GOPUSA.com)

Health bill would cost $829B, cover 94 percent (AP/GOPUSA.com)

Bill increases spending on food stamps, nutrition (AP/GOPUSA.com)

Lawmaker: Cost of presidential copter tripled (AP/GOPUSA.com)

Obama huddles with Democratic leaders over jobs (AP/GOPUSA.com)

Commentary:

The Mundell-Laffer Solution (Larry Kudlow/GOPUSA.com)

Weak Himself, Obama Draws Strength From Bush (Michael Barone/GOPUSA.com)

O-lympics (Lisa Fabrizio/GOPUSA.com)

Couldn’t the ‘Men in White Coats’ Just Take Obama Away? (Bobby Eberle/GOPUSA.com)

Spin Doctors For Obamacare (Michelle Malkin/GOPUSA.com)

Obama’s ‘No I in Team Syndrome (Bobby Eberle/GOPUSA.com)

We know why the three Democrat candidates for statewide office are reluctant to debate, even though they are behind in the polls — they either don’t know their own positions (see Creigh Deeds tax and Marriage Amendment videos) or don’t know much about the job they are seeking (see Jody Wagner video). Now it’s Delegate Steve Shannon’s turn to show his incompetence as he seeks election to attorney general, Virginia’s second most important office.

Tuesday, we commented on a debate he and his Republican attorney general opponent, Senator Ken Cuccinelli, had on WTOP-AM in Washington, D.C. It didn’t go well for Shannon, then. Last night, in Prince William County, it got worse. Also, again, it wasn’t broadcast. But we do have the magic of YouTube and, with his performance, Shannon might become a bigger video celebrity than Deeds, whose tax video has been seen by 50,000-plus people.  

In the video, Senator Cuccinelli asks Delegate Shannon to name the divisions within the attorney general’s office and their functions. Shannon doesn’t know! He says it’s a gotcha question, as if not knowing the structure of the commonwealth’s law firm is a trivial matter, and refuses to answer! (Hear the derisive laughs from the audience.) Does he think the governor doesn’t have to know how many cabinet departments there are, or their functions? 

At the end, you can hear Delegate Shannon tell a reporter, “It’s been a bad week . . . for Ken.” If polls showing his opponent up by double digits is his idea of bad, no wonder he thinks he answered the question!

Last week, the candidates for attorney general, Republican Senator Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Delegate Steve Shannon, both of Fairfax, had only their second debate and the first that was broadcast — but only on Washington radio station WTOP-AM. (Democrat debate ducking has been taken to a whole new level this year.)

What’s particularly perplexing is the lack of coverage the media has affored the few debates that have taken place in any of the three statewide races, especially given the media’s endless pontificating about elections and issues versus slick and negative advertising. (With only a handful of debates, it sure doesn’t take a lot to cover them, either.) Yet, three candidates repeatedly refuse to debate (despite being well behind in the polls) and, when there is one, it is not on statewide television.

But we did have that one AG debate on WTOP’s The Politics Program with Mark Plotkin (listen here). The highlight seems to be Delegate Shannon’s ”I am a pro-business, law and order centrist,” comment when, in fact, he has a 100-percent AFL-CIO voting record (see AFL-CIO here) and has received nearly $150,000 in campaign contributions from big labor during his six years in the General Assembly — $120,000 of which has come during his attorney general run (see VPAP.org). 

What makes the statement even more astonishing is that Delegate Shannon attended a seminar in mid-September in Annapolis, Md., put on by the Democrat Attorneys General Association, that taught attorneys general how to sue companies into achieving liberal, extremist environmental policies not won through the legislative process. A suit-filing, job-killing AG. Now that’s business friendly.

As if that wasn’t enough, when it was Delegate Shannon’s turn to ask the one question each candidate was allowed to ask of the other, he asked Senator Cuccinelli about global warming and “cap and trade.” If this is so important, why do Delegate Shannon’s television ads stress Internet predators?

Instead, he wants to sue employers into closing down, such as the MeadWestvaco plant in Creigh Deeds’ own senate district. Read here what company Vice President Mark George wrote in an op-ed about the affect “cap and trade” would have on its Alleghany factory. It’s liberal strategy to redefine terms (marriage comes to mind), but instead of coming down the middle, Delegate Shannon comes right down Leftist Lane. 

Annotations & Elucidations 

Dems Abandoning Deeds? Surprisingly Close House Race?

Articles of note in today’s large News Stand: At the top of the News section, as well as at the top of the National News section, are articles in which leading national Democrats  sound as if Democrat gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds is in the bottom of the ninth, with at least one out. New Jersey is the name of the game, now, they say (see this QOD if you haven’t yet).

Meanwhile, Republican attorney general candidate, Senator Ken Cuccinelli (R-37, Fairfax), was the only one of the six statewide candidates to speak at the traditional Jefferson Assembly at Poplar Forest. (Virginia pols turning down a chance to appear Jeffersonian?) The Richmond Times-Dispatch looks at 10 House of Delegates races that may decide its control. Most interesting, it includes the 69th district race. The 69th is a majority-minority district and is overwhelmingly Democrat. But Republican Ernesto Sampson is giving Democrat Betsy Carr more than she wants.

Aside from campaigns, the Life issue continues to confound liberals, who don’t seem to understand that people have a natural instinct to preserve it. First, a new Pew Research poll confirms a Gallup survey earlier this year — support for Life continues to rise. Those supporting abortion are stagnant or falling. See the Analysis section. Then, for all the stereotype of college students being pro-abortion, there are Students for Life groups springing up all over Virginia campuses and around the country. The James Madison University Dukes for Life are profiled in the Harrisonburg Daily News-Record. 

News:

Schweitzer: Dems Have Better Shot in New Jersey (Washington Post Virginia Politics Blog)

Deeds: From Patching Fence to Straddling It (Washington Post)

McDonnell Tops Deeds On TV Ad Spending (Washington Post)

In cash race, businesses back Va. governor candidate McDonnell (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

RPV Blasts Deeds for GOP-Backed Bill (Washington Post Virginia Politics Blog)

Deeds, McDonnell each claim endorsements (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

DNC giving Deeds additional $1 million (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Politicians stump at Poplar Forest event (Lynchburg News & Advance)

TV ad wars heat up in governor’s race (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

House of Delegates control up for grabs (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Gilbert Boosts War Chest With $19K Fundraiser (Harrisonburg Daily News-Record)

Newcomers compete for Del. Kenneth Melvin’s seat in 80th House district (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot)

JMU Group Joins Abortion Protest (Harrisonburg Daily News-Record)

High court rejects ‘Choose Life’ plates case (Washington Times)

National News:

Democrats see rise in New Jersey, fade in Va. governors’ races (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot/Politico.com)

Same-sex marriage close to D.C. approval (Washington Times)

Analysis:

Support for abortion slips (Pew Research Center for the People & the Press) 

Poll Check: A Shift on Abortion? (Jon Cohen/Washington Post Behind The Numbers Blog)

We’re awash in polls right now and the attending controversy they inevitably entail. But a new poll released a few hours ago may shed light on which polls are more accurate — or not (see Politico.com).

Rasmussen Reports today released a poll that shows Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell leading his Democrat opponent, Senator Creigh Deeds, 51-42 (see RasmussenReports.com). Rasmussen’s previous poll had the difference at only two percentage points, contributing to the perception of a tightening race. Subsequent polls from the liberal Washington Post (a four-point difference), which has endorsed Deeds, and Public Policy Polling, a Democrat leaning firm, (a five-point difference) confirmed that perception.

Yesterday, however, a SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll had the GOP ticket up by double digits. But it was largely ignored by the Mainstream Media because its results are out of line with the others. Now, the very reputable Rasmussen poll seems as close to the SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll as it does the PPP poll (which one Richmond radio station reported on for a full 24 hours). Furthermore, even the PPP poll has Republican Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and attorney general candidate Senator Ken Cuccinelli up by eight and nine points, respectively, further validating the point of view that the GOP ticket has a significant lead.

Who’s right — those who say it’s close or those who think the GOP is on its way? We won’t know until election day. But Rasmussen does have a track record. According to a testimonial on its Web site, it ”produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.” None other than Virginia politico guru Dr. Larry Sabato said it.

Two polls on Virginia’s statewide campaigns were released within the last 48 hours: one, by the Democrat leaning polling firm, Public Policy Polling, and one by SurveyUSA for Roanoke television station WDBJ-TV. It is interesting to note that the PPP poll has received exponential media coverage, lasting well into the second day after it was released. The SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll was released last night but is hardly causing a blip on the Mainstream Media’s radar screen.

The most likely explanation is that the SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll seems out of whack when compared to other polls. While many have the governor’s race in a four to seven point range, in favor of Republican Bob McDonnell, the SurveyUSA/WDBJ poll shows him up by double digits, as it does his running mates Lt. Governor Bill Bolling, running for re-election, and Senator Ken Cuccinelli (R-37, Fairfax), running for attorney general. Still, that’s never stopped the notoriously out of proportion Washington Post polls from getting top billing across the state. 

In what has gone practically unmentioned in the frenzy of the tightening of PPP’s poll, however, is that it also shows Lt. Governor Bolling and Senator Cuccinelli leading by eight and nine points, respectively. So, we have a Mainstream Media cherry picking news even from the one poll on which it has focused. Not only that, but by its own admission, the PPP poll’s “internals” do not show bad news for McDonnell. Among the fndings (see PPP Blog here):

52% of voters say they’re very familiar with the thesis and McDonnell actually has a 55-41 {lead} with that group, reflecting the fact that Republicans are more engaged this year and following the campaign more closely. Deeds is up 56-41 with the 29% of voters who claim moderate knowledge of the thesis.

(Does this mean conservative voters are more informed, or just that they don’t watch MSNBC?)

In another blog post,PPP’s Tom Jensen writes that Democrat candidate Creigh Deeds leads among voters who were undecided a month ago by 35-32 percent, and lists this as an advantage for him. But it’s within the margin of error and not enough to close the gap.

Back to SurveyUSA. Here’s a link to its methodology and complete statistical breakdown. It survey 1,000 Virginians, 886 of them registered to vote, and filtered its responses to the 631 of them determined to be likely voters this November.

A new statewide poll by SurveyUSA for Roanoke television station WDBJ (see here) released tonight shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell leading his Democrat opponent Creigh Deeds by a 55-41 percent margin. This is in keeping with all other recent polls that show McDonnell ahead, but differs significantly in its margin.

Lt. Governor Bill Bolling, seeking re-election, leads his Democrat opponent Jody Wagner by a 54-41 margin, and Senator Ken Cuccinelli (R-37, Fairfax) leads Delegate Steve Shannon (D-35, Fairfax) by 53-42 percent in the attorney general campaign. Four percent remain undecided in the governor’s race while five percent are undecided in the other two.

Here’s the WDBJ video report:

Here are two photos that tell a story to which I was a witness. It’s a story about the Richmond City Republican Committee, a small, but aggressive organization, and its Democrat counterpart, a large organization, that runs much of the city’s political machinery. From the get-go of last Saturday’s Que Pasa Festival, Richmond’s largest Hispanic cultural event and party, the Richmond GOP was active putting up and distributing signs (in Spanish and English), handing out stickers and literature, and manning a booth, among other activities. The city Dems, up until 1:00 p.m. (an hour into the event), were pretty much M.I.A. A couple of college student-looking lads showed up around 12:45 and walked around with clipboards and not doing much else. At 1:00 they had a table stocked and somewhat staffed (the photo below was at 12:30).

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell and Republican attorney general candidate, Senator Ken Cuccinelli attended the event as well, and worked the crowd which received them warmly as city committee members followed them handing out stickers and information, and pointing out local media. To his credit, Democrat A.G. candidate Delegate Steve Shannon showed up for a while later in the day. But the city Dems (who left an hour early after showing up late), and their standard bearer, who claim to stand for so many minorities, seem to have taken the Richmond Hispanic vote for granted.

The moral of the story: Those who stereotypically report that one party or another writes off certain voters may be correct, but it may not be the one they claim — at the very least, the Richmond city GOP showed they don’t take anyone for granted (and not for the first time). Might the Richmond Dems be doing what they accuse Republicans of doing?

(Admin’s note: The pictures and ”scoop” here was going to be an exclusive, but I waived my claim, and other blogs may have picked this up over the weekend.)

Apoyamos McDonnell, Bolling y Cuccinelli. Ready, willing and able. An underdog Richmond GOP took on its bigger opponent on their own turf.

Excuse me, anyone home? I’m looking for some Deeds material? Perhaps Wagner?