The bad poll news comes on the heels of a story circulating in Democratic circles today that the Democratic National Committee is reportedly holding on to its $5 million financial commitment to the Deeds campaign out of concern that the Deeds campaign has focused too much of its attention on the controversial Bob McDonnell 1989 grad-school thesis setting out a hardline social-conservative political agenda for his budding political career and not enough on putting down a framework for what a Deeds administration would do for Virginia.
If true, the irony rivals fantasy — pulling the plug for his obsessive negative ads and hammering Republican Bob McDonnell on “divisive social issues.” Looks like it’s only dividing the senator from his campaign lifeline. But then again, maybe it’s because the DNC saw this and this.
The good news is that McDonnell continues to lead by five points heading into the final month. While this is closer than they (PPP) had the race two months ago, that appears to be entirely the result of Democrats waking up and realizing there’s an election going on. McDonnell still leads among independents by a margin of 53-37 percent, and he’s getting 96 percent of the Republican vote. Deeds is getting 82 percent of the Democrat vote. One potential issue with these poll numbers is that they probably oversampled Democrats overall, as their respondents are 37 percent Democrat, only 29 percent Republican, and 34 percent self-identified independent. I seriously doubt that that will be an accurate reflection of the Election Day turnout, but, for argument’s sake, let’s play with those numbers.
The reason to expect the race to continue to get closer is that of the nine percent who are undecided, 53 percent are Democrats, while only seven percent are Republicans. The other 40 percent are independents. Currently, McDonnell is getting 98 percent of the Republicans who have made up their minds and 59 percent of independents who have made up their minds, and Creigh Deeds is getting 94 percent of Democrats who have made up their minds. If you follow that formula and give McDonnell 98 percent of the Republican undecideds and 59 percent of the independent undecideds, and give Deeds 94 percent of the Democratic undecideds, then this adds up to a very close race on Election Day, with McDonnell winning with 51.03 percent of the vote.
The bottom line is that McDonnell is in the stronger position headed into the final month, but it’s going to be a very close race, and, regardless of what the turnout percentages end up being in terms of Republican, Democrat and independent, if McDonnell maintains his levels of support among Republicans and among independents, he’ll win in a close race.
Meanwhile, Family Foundation President Victoria Cobb is quoted in the first article in the News section. It’s a piece in the Washington Post comparing the candidates’ records on social issues.
Nationally, religion and life issues are in the news. One poll finds a dramatic increase in non-religiously affiliated Americans, while a the Alliance Defense Fund reminds the government to stay out of the pulpit. The pro-life issue is back in the news, as the National Right To Life Committee shows how health care “reform” will lead to rationing. In addition, some pro-lifers are concerned about the administration’s double standard, and the intimidation they feel, after a murder of an pro-life activist in Michigan.
We’re waiting for the Mainstream Media to pin him down on this and/or for the senator to come clean on his own. After all, to paraphrase Senator Deeds himself, he didn’t write these things when he was 34 — he wrote them, spoke them and voted them in his 40s and 50s.
Anyway, the label tossing has begun, with each side using the word “extreme” almost as much as Obama uses the word Czar (well, maybe not that much). It is always useful, though not very common, to do a little compare/contrast when talking about “extreme” positions on issues like abortion. So, as the Post article touts Deeds’ opposition to the ban on partial birth abortion and parental consent laws, let’s reflect way back to 2003 when those bills passed the General Assembly in overwhelming numbers (enough to override then-Gov. Mark Warner’s killer amendments). It is interesting to see what other abortion “extremists” joined then-Delegate Bob McDonnell (and 105 other members of the GA on Partial Birth and 99 other members of the GA on parental consent) in support of these “extreme” measures:
Senator Russ Potts (R)(D) (I)
Senator John Chichester (R)(D) (?)
Senator Chuck Colgan (D) (now chair of Senate Finance Committee)
Senator Edd Houck (D) (now chair of Senate Ed and Health Committee)
Senator Phil Puckett (D)
Delegate Ward Armstrong (House Democrat minority leader)
Oh, and the partial birth ban was supported by none other than former Democrat candidate for governor Brian Moran. That’s just to name a few.
Now there’s a line up of right wing extremists if I’ve ever seen one.
It was quite interesting to hear Democrat gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe basically tell the far left, homosexual lobby to get over the Marriage Amendment in his answer to a question in Saturday’s Democrat debate. Ironically, his tone is reminiscent of what conservatives find irritatingly familiar from many quarters —that no one cares about social issues, they drive away voters and let’s unite around fiscal issues (never mind many of these people advocate higher taxes and spending anyway).
He basically said that it takes three years to get a constitutional amendment on the ballot and passed — which is what is needed to repeal the Marriage Amendment. A governor has four years to make a difference, so why take up three years (75 percent) of your one term trying to fight something Virginians passed overwhelmingly two-and-a-half-years ago? Instead, let’s worry about jobs.
Finally! A Democrat tells the liberal base to cool it on the social issues in favor of “kitchen table” issues, because you’re driving away voters. Conservatives, on the other hand, don’t find that call rare at all. But T-Mac ain’t dumb. He realizes the difference — which is, of course, that it is electorally proven that social conservatism wins.