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This is the second and final installment of an interview with nationally known political scientist Dr. Bob Holsworth. The former Virginia Commonwealth University dean is a regular commentator on Virginia and national politics. His writes for national and state publications, as well as on his widely read blog, Virginia Tomorrow, and is a frequent guest on television and radio. He also is an in-demand public speaker and heads his own consultancy. In yesterday’s first installment, we covered the current session of the General Assembly and touched on national politics. Today, we look at Virginia’s version of health care legislation, the upcoming 2010 mid-term elections, discuss U.S. Senator Jim Webb’s 2012 prospects, and examine the Tea Party movement in Virginia.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Which is the most interesting GOP Congressional District nominating contest — the 5th, 2nd or 11th — and why? How do you see those campaigns playing out?

Dr. Bob Holsworth: All of these races are very interesting because each of them is competitive. The number of entrants indicate that Republicans believe that 2010 may be a once in a generation opportunity, a year that could potentially rival 1994 in terms of GOP success. At the moment, the battle for the 5th District nomination to challenge Tom Perriello might be the most fascinating, if only because of the number of forces that are, or potentially are, in play, including ones that may have national implications.

There’s Robert Hurt, a highly respected member of the Senate who has considerable support from the party’s national establishment, but who is also being challenged largely by a set of conservative activists who maintain that Hurt has not been sufficiently supportive of low-tax, small government principles. One question that is being raised is whether the anti-Hurt forces will actually coalesce behind a single candidate or divide their vote in a primary? Recently, things have even gotten more complicated. At least one of the candidates currently in the nomination contest says that he is considering dropping out and running as an independent.

Moreover, Virgil Goode has said that he has not made up his mind about a possible challenge and could even run as an independent Republican. A poll out today says that in a three way race between Hurt, Perriello, and Goode, the former Congressman is in a tie with Perriello with Hurt running third. In any event, I think that a lot of national media will be looking at the 5th to see if the GOP can negotiate its internal tensions productively, something that will have to achieved if a candidate who is hard working and energetic as Tom Perriello is to be defeated.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Is there a credible Republican candidate in the wings to challenge Rick Boucher in the 9th Congressional District? Is Representative Boucher vulnerable?

Dr. Holsworth: It is usually very, very difficult to defeat a long-term incumbent such as Rick Boucher who has been widely applauded for his constituent service, even if a number of his votes may not be consistent with majority views in his district. But if there is a year in which Boucher is vulnerable, 2010 may be it. The problem for the GOP here is very different than in the 2nd, 5th and 11th — it’s not clear that the Republicans can recruit a strong challenger. Terry Kilgore and William Wampler have said no, though Eric Cantor was in town yesterday to see if “No” really means “No.” Morgan Griffith has said, however, that he is seriously considering entering the contest. If he does, he’ll be a formidable challenger — he’s tough, politically very skilled, and a very hard worker. But even with Griffith, this would be a tough race, because Boucher has built up a lot of support in the localities that make up the district. But if Morgan enters, it’ll be a great race.

FamilyFoundationBlog: How do you see the Tea Party movement in Virginia? Are these people disgruntled conservatives who normally vote Republican showing displeasure at the party (and who may have sat out in 2008) or are they new people getting involved for the first time who can make a difference in upcoming elections?

Dr. Holsworth: I think that it’s difficult to say that there is one kind of person attracted to the Tea Party. I think that there are a number of Republican conservatives disgruntled with what Glenn Beck calls “Progressives.” I also think that there are many of the same kind of independents who were initially attracted to Ross Perot in 1992 — ”the government is broken, we’re mad as hell and we’re not going to take it anymore.” And I think that there are also some people who may not have been very much involved in politics before, but have become mobilized by what they consider to be an inappropriate and ineffective response by the federal government to the economic downturn. It seems to me that they represent sentiments that are fairly broadly distributed at the moment throughout the general population and political figures would be foolish to ignore their perspective in 2010. At the same time, it is not so clear how their influence inside GOP nomination battles will play out and whether this will be positive or negative for the GOP in the general elections. This is one of the reasons why I’m watching the 5th District very closely since it has what appears to be a large and relatively organized set of Tea Party activists.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Are you surprised at how quickly and smoothly the Health Care Freedom legislation has moved through the General Assembly, especially in the Senate?

Dr. Holsworth: Yes. At least until you see that the five Democratic legislators sit in districts where (Governor Bob) McDonnell ran strong and where their own seats could be in jeopardy.

FamilyFoundationBlog: Speaking of health care, as well as all the new government spending Tea Party activists abhor, do you think Senators Webb and Warner have endangered their re-elections by voting for these programs? Will the new conservative movement stay active that long?

Dr. Holsworth: 2014 for Warner is a long, long way off. Webb will obviously have a serious Republican challenger. Webb will not be easy to pigeonhole because there will be numerous instances in both foreign and domestic policy where he will part company with the administration and the Democratic congressional leadership. A big question regarding Webb is how his progressive economic populism be viewed. Will he seen as too liberal for Virginia economically or as authentic guy willing to stand up for the voiceless?

FamilyFoundationBlog: Dr. Holsworth, thank you very much for your time. Your thoughts are always informative and I know our readers have learned a lot.

Tomorrow, we will post part one of our interview with Dr. Bob Holsworth, Virginia’s top political analyst and commentator (in this Admin’s opinion). We are very fortunate the former Virginia Commonwealth University Dean, and current consultant and editor of Virginia Tomorrow, agreed to this interview. He often is quoted in state and national publications, as well as national television networks and Web sites, especially as Virginia continues to grow in importance on the electoral map. We think you will find his answers to our questions very insightful and informative. We cover a lot of ground, including the General Assembly, the 2010 elections and the early days leadership of Governor Bob McDonnell. So, please check back tomorrow and Wednesday for a good dose of Virginia political punditry and expertise by the best in the business, Dr. Bob Holsworth. We think it was quite a coup for us, and once you read the interview, we know you’ll agree.

That’s the topic for discussion on Thursday, October 29, at Virginia Commonwealth  University. An eyebrow raising one at that. What may be more of a surprise — albeit a decidedly good one — is that Dr. Brad Wilcox is the one giving the presentation.

Dr. Wilcox is a renown expert on marriage and serves on our Marriage Commission, which has produced several recommendations for the General Assembly to reduce the rate of divorce in the commonwealth (at least one of which now is law). Dr. Wilcox is director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, where he also is an associate professor of sociology. In addition, he is a member of the James Madison Society at Princeton University. His research focuses on marriage, parenting and cohabitation, as well as on the ways that gender, religion and children influence the quality and stability of American family life. He is widely published in publications such as The American Sociological Review, Social Forces, The Journal of Marriage and Family, and The Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion.

The lecture is one in the Saint Benedict Institute Lecture series and is free and open to the public. If you live in, or will be in, the Richmond area on October 29, it will be well worth the time to attend. We’re sure Dr. Wilcox’s remarks will shed light on the very serious problem of divorce in America and the reasons for its proclivity. The preface to the lecture’s theme — “After The Revolution” — gives a hint: The sexual revolution was supposed to unleash a healthy liberation for women and men alike. Apparently, not; not for women, not for men, and certainly not for the wreckage of the broken families and children left in its wake.

The lecture is from 7:00-9:00 p.m. and is free and open to the public. It is in room 1169 at the VCU building at 901 West Main Street.

How prescient is this blog? The scientific studies have not come back from the lab yet, but it seems whenever we mention an institution or group making a goof of itself in public, they do it again almost immediately after mention them.

Not that it’s a pressing bit of business for us, but since this involves a major state university, we found with more than a little interest that Virginia Commonwealth University hit the front page of The Richmond Times-Dispatch this morning, again, this time about some severe ramifications regarding its awarding of a bachelor’s degree to former Richmond city police chief Rodney Monroe (now police chief in Charlotte, N.C.), even though he did not meet typical academic requirements. The upshot: Four prominent members of the faculty resigned their leadership positions over the way the investigation of the inappropriately awarded diploma was handled. Among them was noted political commentator Dr. Bob Hollsworth, who has spoken to the Family Foundation on different occasions, including our annual Richmond Briefing during the 2007 session of the General Assembly.

Of the four, one is taking a new job out of state. The other three will remain as faculty members but have relinquished positions as deans, directors and other leadership posts (some held dual positions in addition to their tenured ones). We’ve found “Dr. Bob” to be an objective, insightful and astute observer of the political culture in Virginia. We hope he continues in that role.

If it wasn’t bad enough that Virginia Commonwealth University gave new meaning to “Honorary Degree” by conferring on former Richmond Police Chief Rodney Monroe a bachelor’s diploma when he took a whopping six hours of credits (only two classes), now VCU’s incoming freshmen summer reading requirement is coming into question.

According to a letter to the editor by a parent of an incoming VCU freshman published yesterday in The Richmond Times-Dispatch, all freshmen at their orientation were assigned to read a book about a homosexual coming out of the closet. It was the only book required for the 2008 Summer Reading Program and will be discussed during “Welcome Week.”

This is not a small deal, not a casual summertime beach read. This is the first assignment for these students as collegians, where serious study and discovery is to take place, not transient, Oprah-like book-of-the-month drivel.

What happened to the great classic Western authors and their works on civilization, philosophy, economics, history, religion, art, culture? Or more modern European novelists, such as Joyce? Or 20th century American authors such as Hemingway, Faulkner, Ellison as well as giants who also were Richmonders: Mary Johnston, Ellen Glasgow or James Branch Cabell, for whom VCU’s library is named? This truly is embarrassing for VCU.

People have their own time to indulge in whatever fleeting topic they wish to explore. We all know there’s plenty of time for that in college. But the idea of a University is to expose students to time tested works of meaning and substance which provide the foundation for a lifetime of learning. The least VCU can do is educate them.

Just a reminder: The “How Would Jesus Vote?” Tour will be here tomorrow night from 6:45-9:00 at Virginia Commonwealth University’s Commons Theater, 917 Floyd Avenue, in Richmond. It’s free and open to the public, but registration is required. Doors open at 6:15. To register in advance or for more information, visit www.hwjvtour.com.

Hope to see you there. But don’t just listen to us. Click here to check out the HWJV Tour for yourself via this You Tube video.

The five city national “How Would Jesus Vote Tour” will kick off in Richmond this Saturday, June 14. We hope you will think about registering and attending.

Inaugurated by Advance Church during the 2004 presidential election, and in partnership with Wellington Boone Ministries, the HWJV Tour is a series of public discussion forums designed to give Christians across the theological and political spectrum an opportunity to weigh in together on which facts should guide their voting process during the upcoming elections. 

HWJV Richmond will take place from 6:45-9:00 p.m. at Virginia Commonwealth University Commons Theater, 907 Floyd Avenue. Doors open at 6:15 p.m. The forums are free and open to the public, but registration is required. Click here, at www.hwjvtour.com, to register. 

Confirmed speakers for HWJV Richmond include Bishop Wellington Boone of Wellington Boone Ministries, Reverend Ben Campbell of Richmond Hill, Stephen McDowell of the Providence Foundation, and Star Parker of the Coalition on Urban Renewal and Education.

HWJV Richmond is presented by the Coalition on Urban Renewal and Education, Manna Christian Fellowship, and Brooks Financial Services.

After Richmond, the HWJV Tour will continue in Atlanta on July 26, Dallas on August 30, and Los Angeles on September 27. The HWJV Tour will wrap up on October 18 with a final forum in the nation’s capital. For further information about the HWJV Tour, including event details, panelist biographies, and registration information, please visit www.hwjvtour.com, or click here.